Tehran evaluates a provisional nuclear agreement with the United States to avoid an escalation. Pressure from Washington, tensions in the Middle East and military hypotheses on the table
Tehran It would be taking into consideration the hypothesis of proposing a provisional nuclear understanding to the United States, as the first step towards a wider and more lasting agreement. He reported it on Thursday Axiosciting a European diplomat and an informed source on the interviews. The initiative arrives in a moment of intense pressure from the White House: the president Donald Trump has imposed a two -month deadline to reach a new agreement with Iran. In the meantime, the United States has increased the military presence in the Middle East, a signal of a possible preparation for alternative scenarios if the diplomatic way does not produce the desired results. If the negotiations do not progress, Trump could evaluate a military action against Iranian nuclear infrastructures, or give the green light to an intervention by Israel.
According to sources close to the Iranian dossier, mentioned by AxiosTehran’s officials consider unrealistic to conclude a complete and technically articulated understanding within the times imposed by Washington. Tehran’s goal would seem to be to earn time, in an attempt to avoid a sudden escalation. Wings vazdirector of the Iran project at The International Crisis Groupsaid to Axios: «The Iranians seem to believe that it is unlikely to achieve a sustainable agreement in the times provided by the President Trump. It may therefore be necessary to consider a provisional agreement as an intermediate stage towards a definitive agreement »The Iranian mission at the United Nations refused to comment on the matter. According to what is reported by Axiosa possible provisional agreement between Iran and the United States could provide Tehran’s temporary concessions. Among these, a reduction in uranium enrichment, the dilution of Uranium stocks enriched at 60% and a wider access for international inspectors. Although these measures would only slowly slow down the possible progress towards the construction of a nuclear weapon, several experts believe that they could still encourage a more propitious context to constructive negotiations.
The doubts of the United States
Such a proposal could also include the extension of the so -called “snapback», Foreseen by the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA), which allows the automatic reintroduction of UN sanctions in the event that Iran does not respect the commitments made. The arrangement on Snapback, which allows the automatic restoration of UN sanctions, should expire in October. France, the United Kingdom and Germany have already warned Tehran: if an agreement is not reached by the end of June, they will activate the mechanism. A possible provisional understanding could include the Iranian request to suspend the “maximum pressure 2.0” campaign wanted by the Trump administration. However, the availability of the White house to accept such a condition. In the meantime, some US officials express fears that Tehran can take advantage of a partial agreement to earn time, blocking negotiations while continues nuclear activities. This suspicion – reports Axios – risks further hindering the commitment of the American administration. The report was released in view of the meeting scheduled for Saturday a Muscatin Oman, among the special envoy of the United States for the Middle East, Steve Witkoffand the deputy minister of Iranian Foreign Affairs Abbas Araqchirepresenting respectively of Washington And Tehran. Although the president dOnald Trump He has declared that the talks will take place directly, Iranian sources have specified that the meeting will be indirectly, with mediated exchanges instead of a face to face.
In the meantime, Trump He reiterated on Wednesday at the press that, if military intervention against the Iranian nuclear program is necessary, Israel It will be an active part of the operation, even going so far as to guide it. To the question on what would be the deadline within which Iran would have reached an agreement, the president replied: “I cannot be very specific, but when the interviews are started, you know if they are going well or not, and I would say that the conclusion will come when I will think they are not going well”. In response to the growing pressure by the international community, Iran has launched a hard warning: it could expel the nuclear inspectors of the United Nations from its territory if they continue what Tehran has called “external threats”. The recipient Ali Shamkhanione of the main collaborators of Iran’s supreme guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, He has reported the possibility of drastic countermeasures if the next talks will not produce favorable results for Tehran. “The persistence of the external threats and the Iran military attack situation could lead to deterrent measures, including the expulsion of the inspectors of the International Agency for atomic energy and the termination of cooperation. You could also consider the transfer of materials enriched to safe places, “he wrote Shamkhani on X referring to the enrichment systems of the Uranium of Iran.
