Iranian nuclear negotiations are stalled and Iran appears more and more isolated and fragile. Israel evaluates a preventive attack on Tehran’s nuclear sites, while Trump threatens a military action if an agreement is not reached.
While nuclear negotiations between Iran And United States They cross a phase of growing uncertainty, Iranian officials warn on the lack of an alternative strategy if the talks should fail. According to an investigation of Reutersthe internal tensions to the Iranian leadership, added to external pressures and to the partial support of China and Russia, leave Tehran without a clear direction if the negotiations were to interrupt. Despite the indications of the supreme guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – which rejects Washington’s requests as excessive – some Iranian exponents, mentioned by Reuterswarn: without a loosening of international sanctions, the country’s economic recovery will remain out of reach. Tehran could strengthen ties with Beijing And Flybut analysts believe that such an orientation would offer only a symbolic support, in an increasingly unstable international scenario. Furthermore, crucial knots, including enriched uranium stocks and the Iranian missile program, remain unresolved. The same report underlines that any sustainable agreement would require tangible measures from both sides, possibly within the expiry of the current resolution UN scheduled for October.
Israel ready to act? Washington alarm: “Preparations for an attack”
In the meantime, sources of theUS intelligence reveal that Israel It would be evaluating an attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, despite the diplomatic efforts of the Trump administration to achieve an agreement with Tehran. According to what reported by the CNN, an Israeli military action would represent a clear break with the president of the president, and it appears unlikely that it is undertaken without at least a tacit go -ahead by the American side. A attack of this type could trigger a dangerous escalation in Middle Eastregion already destabilized by the conflict in Gaza and the tensions exploded starting from 2023
“The possibility of an Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear plant has grown significantly in recent months,” said a source aware of the intelligence assessments. To worry, even the hypothesis that a possible agreement promoted by Trump cannot guarantee the complete dismantling of the Iranian Uranium Arsenal, thus increasing the risk of an Israeli military intervention. In addition to the public and private signals launched by prominent exponents of the Israeli establishment, there are intercepted communications and military displacements – such as the transfer of aerial ammunition and the completion of exercises – which feed the hypothesis of an imminent move. However, the same movements could represent a pressure strategy on Tehran to force her to review the key elements of its nuclear program. A game of mirrors that reflects the growing complexity of the Iranian dossier, and the challenges that await the White house in the coming months.
Trump raises the level of the clash: “Military attack if the negotiations with Iran fail”
Donald Trump He has publicly threatened a military action against Iran if diplomatic efforts to achieve a new nuclear agreement should fail. According to the administration plans, the agreement should limit or dismantle Tehran’s atomic program. But Washington has set a precise deadline. According to sources close to the White House taken from the CNN, Trump would have sent a letter to the Iranian supreme guide in mid -March, Ayatollah Ali Khameneiplacing a 60 -day ultimatum for the success of the interviews. Since then more than two months have passed and the first negotiating round has started for 38 days, without significant progress.
A high western diplomat, after a meeting with Trump at the beginning of the month, confirmed that the president would only grant a few weeks before authorizing possible military operations. However, the official line of the White House remains marked by diplomacy. This ambivalent posture has put Israel in a delicate position. Jonathan Panikoffformer American intelligence official with delegation to the Region, he underlined how the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu It is found “between the anvil and the hammer”: on the one hand the need to hinder an agreement that Israel believes insufficient; on the other, the fear of incrubating relations with the former president, with whom there have already been friction on regional security issues. “In the end – he said Panikoff – Israel’s decision will depend on the political choices and the moves of the United States. It is difficult to imagine that Netanyahu It can order an attack without at least one tacit go -ahead on the American side ».
Tehran in difficulty: Israel evaluates the military option while Iran touches the lowest point in decades
Iran is in its weakest military position of the last decades, thanks to a combination of factors: an economy in crisis aggravated by the sanctions, the destruction of its missile and air defense infrastructures by Israel last October, and the weakening of its most influential regional proxy. According to sources of the US intelligence mentioned by Cnn, Israel considers this scenario as a strategic window of opportunities. WashingtonFor his part, he is intensifying the collection of information to be able to assist the Israeli authorities if the decision to hit the decision, a source close to the Trump administration has specified that a direct involvement of the United States in any attacks against Iranian nuclear sites would be unlikely, unless a significant provocation by Tehran. Israel’s operational skills, in fact, would not be enough to completely destroy the Iranian nuclear program: logistical support, air supplies and high penetration bombs, as already emerged in previous CIA assessments. An Israeli source told the CNN that Israel is ready to act even unilaterally if the United States should reach an agreement with Tehran that is considered unacceptable by Jerusalem. The agreement reported the source, would be seen as “wrong” and would not guarantee the security of the Jewish state. A recent assessment of US intelligence, dating back to February, suggests that Israel could take advantage of the fulfillment of Iranian aerial defenses Using war airplanes or long -haul missiles to hit strategic infrastructures. However, according to what is reported by the American media, a military action of this type would only margally slow down the Iranian nuclear program, without representing a definitive solution.
In the meantime, the negotiations between the United States and Iran remain blocked on a crucial point: Washington’s request that Tehran completely gives up the e -crest of the uranium. A process that, if on the one hand it can lead to the production of nuclear weapons, on the other is essential for the generation of energy for civil use. Steve Witkoffspecial correspondent for the head of the US delegation, said ad ABC News that the United States They cannot accept “not even 1% of enrichment capacity” in the future agreement. “We presented to the Iranians a proposal that faces these aspects without missing respect for them,” he explained Witkoff. But Tehran’s position remains uncompromising. Tuesday, the supreme guide Ali Khamenei He claimed not to expect a positive outcome from the talks with the United States, calling the American insistence “a serious mistake” on the renunciation of enrichment. Iran claims its right to enrichment pursuant to the UN nuclear non -proliferation treaty, and reiterated that it does not intend to make concessions on this point. According to Witkoff, a new round of negotiations could take place in Europe in the next few days (perhaps again in Rome). Although both parties have presented proposals, after more than a month of negotiations – mediated byOman – There is currently no draft approved by the President Trumpsources close to the dossier report. Meanwhile, American intelligence agencies continue to monitor the possibility of an Israeli attack against key sites of the Iranian nuclear program. “For Israel – underlined an American official – the military option has always been considered the only really effective to stop Tehran’s nuclear program”.
