Spread at minimums, record btp and stable government: Italy becomes the most reliable country in Europe, while Berlin, Paris and Madrid face political crises
There is a paradox that deserves a chapter in the manuals of political science: Italy, a country historically synonymous with lightning governments and lightning crisis, today is the most “reliable” in Europe. Tuesday the treasure has placed 18 billion btp, receiving requests for 218 billion. Twenty -one times a lot. Not even Apple at the first row of the new iPhone.
The markets send clear messages: in a continent where the governments of Berlin, Paris and Madrid must constantly make the accounts in the parliamentary room, Italy floats solid. The BTP-Bund spread remains between 80 and 90 points. In 2011 we were 550. And the differential with the French OAT? At the time he touched 450. Today? Almost zero. Merkel’s ironic smile and Sarkozy today would not spoil the faces of Meloni and Giorgetti
All this while we carry on a debt of almost 3,000 billion, equal to 137% of GDP. And the markets do not bathe an eye: between 2023 and 2024 the demand for BTP has been at least three times the offer, with foreign investors who made a low hand.
Elsewhere is an elegant disaster. France records a 5.8% deficit and 114% debt, with Macron forced to invent a renovation of the renovation that risks shipwreck on Monday 8 September in Parliament. Berlin? The traditional model made of low -cost Russian gas and exports of Mercedes and Audi is in crisis: the Afd thanks and grows in the polls. Spain floats with 2.5%GDP, but Sanchez survives only thanks to the votes of the independentist Catalans. London? Starmer is already in crisis after a year, while the Maxi-Piano of the Chancellor Reeves risks shipwrecked against his own Labor majority.
So what better than Italy? Foreign investors control 30% of the debt in circulation, the stock exchange reviews the maximums of 2007. Why? Politics rather than economy. Giorgia Meloni guides a government which, for the first time in republican history, could cover the whole legislature. A large majority, capable of holding local defeats, parliamentary ambushes and rebel courts. No reform approved? No problem. The commercial on emigrants in Albania has been withdrawn. It does not matter. Pure Andreottism: “Take to live is better than pulling the leather”.
And then there is Giancarlo Giorgetti, a man of numbers rather than chatting. Primary surplus without strangling growth (0.4%), 6%unemployment, 24.5 million employed. Awarded the best European finance minister by Bankers, even Christine Lagarde reassures.
The European comparison is merciless. The French Parliament split in three, Berlin walked, Spain lives on the edge of the independence votes, London floats drifting. Italy? For the first time Palazzo Chigi is the only address in Europe where continuity and predictability are not slogans from the election campaign, but reality. And the markets know it.
