The vote is now less than a month away. AND Kamala Harris he cannot afford to sleep soundly. We know: At first glance, this might seem like a strange statement. After all, since she took to the field, the vice president has raised around a billion dollars in funding (more than double what she raised by Donald Trump in the same time frame). However, such economic firepower does not seem to correspond to a truly solid candidacy.
According to the predictive model of TheHillthe vice president now has a 51% chance of winning the election: this is a five-point drop compared to the end of September. A worrying picture for the Harris also emerges from the polling average of Real Clear Politics: Nationally, the vice president is ahead by just 1.8%: Joe Bidenas of October 12, 2020, was ahead by ten points, while Hillary Clintonfour years earlier, than six.
The situation does not improve in key states. According to an Emerson survey from a few days ago, Trump he would be slightly ahead in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania: four states which, if the tycoon actually managed to conquer, would take him straight to the White House. Four states in which, also according to the average of Real Clear Politics,the Republican candidate would, at the moment, be slightly ahead.
And then there are the crucial electoral segments. Here too Harris shows signs of difficulty. Second Newsweekthe Democratic candidate has 56% of the Hispanic vote: three points less, that is, compared to Biden in 2020. On the other hand, Siena College found that the vice president is at 78% African American approval, while Bidenfour years ago, it was at 90%. The same Barack Obamaduring a recent electoral event in Pennsylvania, admitted that he did not see the same enthusiasm on the part of the African-American male electorate that he registered during his 2008 campaign. This is a problem which, in addition to Pennsylvania, concerns, according to Politicalalso Michigan. It is clear that these reduced margins represent a disturbing alarm bell for the company Harrisespecially in those key states that appear most in the balance.
Without a doubt, the vice president is strong in the female vote, compared to which, according to Emerson, she is ahead of Trump in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. The tycoon, on the other hand, is leading with this electorate only in one of the key states, Arizona. On the other hand, the Harris However, he is in considerable difficulty with the male vote. An electorate in which, according to Siena College, the tycoon is eleven points ahead at a national level.
Let’s be clear: the race remains wide open. But the difficulties of Harris they are objective. Which evidently clashes with a certain media chorus which, especially in August, already considered her as the winning candidate. In short, what happened? What happened is that his arrival in the field in July undoubtedly ignited the enthusiasm of some voters who were not at all thrilled by Biden. The problem is that, given the electoral system in force in the United States, it is not enough to mobilize voters in general: you need to mobilize the crucial segments of the electorate, that is, those who can guarantee victory in the key states.
Here it is Harris it mobilized, yes, but probably not those electoral groupings that could prove decisive in November. The vice president is in considerable difficulty in Rust Belt because it has problems with both the working-class electorate and the Catholic electorate: two electoral groups, these, with respect to which historically Biden it was stronger. On the other hand, as we have seen, the vice president also struggles in the vote of ethnic minorities. Clearly a weak candidate is not necessarily a losing candidate. However, the fact remains that the Harris was a little too quickly celebrated as more competitive than Biden. The next few weeks will obviously be crucial. And many things could still happen. But, with less than a month to go before the vote, the vice president is becoming increasingly nervous.
