Tension in Libya risks rising. While Russia is transferring its military equipment from Syria to the eastern part of the country, the prime minister of Tripoli, Abdul Hamid Dbeibahcriticized Moscow. Asked about Russian movements, he replied: “No patriotic person accepts the entry of a foreign country and the imposition of its hegemony, and we will not accept the entry of any foreign force except through official agreements and for training purposes. Any party entering Libya without permission or agreement will be fought, and we cannot accept Libya as an international battlefield.”
We remind you that, since 2019, the Tripoli government has essentially enjoyed the support of Türkiye. The words of Dbeibah are therefore to be considered carefully and are unlikely to have been uttered without assent from Recep Tayyip Erdogan: the same one Erdogan which in fact supported the offensive of the Syrian insurgents which led to the overthrow of the regime Bashar al Assad. The problem, if anything, is how to interpret the statements of Dbeibah. They should be understood as a sort of declaration of hostility towards Russia and the general Khalifa Haftar? Or is it a way to solicit a local agreement with Moscow, always with Ankara’s approval?
It should not be forgotten that Russia historically supports the eastern government in Benghazi: an executive with which, over the last year, the Kremlin has strengthened ties in the defense sector. Among other things, that government essentially relies on the same one Haftarwhich in turn enjoys the military support of Moscow. For the Russians, maintaining their grip on eastern Libya has a double strategic meaning: it allows them to radiate their influence on the Mediterranean Sea and, at the same time, on the Sahel region. It is no coincidence that over the last two and a half years, various countries in the area (Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger) have entered Moscow’s geopolitical orbit.
And be careful: there is a further element to consider. Quoting Africa Intelligencethe header Libya Observer reported that Haftar would have been shocked by the fall of Assad. This is a factor that, if combined with the words of Dbeibah against Moscow, suggests a possible increase in tension on the Libyan scene. All this, without neglecting that, second Nova Agencythe Benghazi security services have just arrested a cell of Syrian terrorists operating in eastern Libya: according to what was reported by Libya Reviewthey would have been affiliated with Jabhat al-Nusra: the Syrian jihadist organization from which Hts draws its origins. That is, we are talking about the Islamist group that recently took power in Damascus with the blessing de facto Of Erdogan.
In short, the Syrian crisis is producing significant impacts on Libya. And at the moment it remains to be demonstrated that, in the North African country, the relationship between the Turkish president and Vladimir Putin will be able to handle it. After the fall of Assadthe Tsar trusts the Sultan very little. A sultan who, for his part, is trying to “undermine” Moscow also in the Sahel: not surprisingly, he recently proposed to mediate a détente between Sudan and the United Arab Emirates. Libya must be monitored carefully. Internal tension is growing. And this is not good news at all. For this reason, NATO would do well to urgently relaunch its southern flank.
