Romano Minozzi, Modenese entrepreneur known as the owner of the Irsi ceramics and for the role of shareholder in Mediobanca with 0.11% of the capital is breaking the ranks of the members traditionally close to the CEO Alberto Nagel. An ally of Piazzetta Management Cuccia in previous battles, Minozzi has deployed with more critical and divergent positions in recent operations. A novelty that will certainly weigh on the decisions of the Bank’s Board of Directors called to evaluate the offer presented by MPS.
In 2022, during the dispute for the control of the Generali, Minozzi had supported the list of Caltagirone, but only a year later, in October 2023, instead voted for the minority list proposed by Delfin for the renewal of the Mediobanca Council. Now, the “King of the tiles” seems to look with interest in the purchase of MPS on Mediobanca, which could have significant effects on the governance of the merchant bank.
Positive operation
According to what was declared to MilanfinanceMinozzi considers the operation a positive market move, in line with Italian interests. “As Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called it, it is a market operation; Let’s see how it ends up, “he commented, referring to the public exchange offer (OPS) launched by MPS on Mediobanca. For the entrepreneur from Emilian, the operation appears strategic to secure Italian assets, such as the BTPs and General themselves, a declared objective of Monte dei Paschi.
In this context, Minozzi carefully observed the moves of Generali, recently at the center of a possible agreement with Natixis. The entrepreneur’s vision regarding the merger in the savings managed with transalpine groups is however more nuanced, despite glimpse strategic potential for the Italian market. “The times are long,” he added, remembering that the formalization of the operation is scheduled for April and execution for September.
Gavio’s move
In the meantime, another historical member of Mediobanca, Beniamino Gavio, has made a contrasting decision. The Aurelia group, of which Gavio is the leader, has sold about 200,000 actions of Piazzetta Cuccia, equal to 0.02% of the capital, and has acquired Put options on another 750,000 titles. This move highlights a detachment from the alliance that had seen Gavio among the most convinced supporters of Mediobanca’s management, fueling the already widespread skepticism on the future of the bank.
It is no coincidence that MPS’s move has raised concerns among analysts, who fear uncertainty and risks related to an operation that could compromise the profitability of MPS in the short term. The title of Mps recorded a strong drop in the stock exchange, with a loss of 3.02% to 6.17 euros, confirming the doubts of the market on the success of the operation.
Analysts
Financial analysts are divided into the effectiveness of the MPS offer on Mediobanca. Citi reduced the rating on MPS from buy to neutralwhile confirmed a positive judgment on Mediobanca, raising the target price from 16.35 to 18.20 euros. Although they recognize the diversification potential offered by Mediobanca, Citi’s experts express reservations about the adequacy of the agreement in industrial and financial terms. According to Citi, the operation may not lead to expected benefits and increase the uncertainty about MPS’s medium and long term strategy.
Deutsche Bank also expressed concerns, reducing the judgment on MPS from buy to Hold and lowering the target price to 7.50 euros. For Deutsche, the acquisition represents a radical change in the MPS strategy, which has always been concentrated on targeted acquisitions and high capital distributions. The uncertainty linked to the merger of the CIB and Wealth Management divisions of Mediobanca, with the interruption of these areas, could undermine the achievement of promised synergies. The trend of the shares also contributes to the climate of uncertainty: SIAS Banca Mps (-2%) are mediabanca (-2.6%).
