Wednesday 27 November, a few hours after the ceasefire came into force between Israel And Hezbollahthe Syrian civil war has forcefully reignited. The conflict, which began in 2011 in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, had never been definitively concluded, however since 2020 a precarious balance has been maintained between the main contenders: the government of Bashar al-Assad, which controls much of the country and is supported by the Russians and Iranians; the Kurdish forces from the Sdfassisted by the Americans; finally the Islamist militias of Hayʼat Taḥrīr al-Shām (Hts), who have their power base in the city of Idlib and are supported more or less indirectly by Türkiye.
Precisely these militias (where, moreover, the percentage of foreign fighters from all over the Sunni Islamic world is quite high) launched an offensive on November 27 west of Aleppo, the second largest Syrian city in the north-east of the country. The attacks caught government forces stationed on the line of contact by surprise and saw militiamen from Hts apply some of the military innovations resulting from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, such as the use of kamikaze drones and anti-drone protective nets for armored vehicles.
Islamist militiamen have conquered dozens of villages, arriving in the neighborhoods of the western outskirts of Aleppo and cutting the m5 motorway that goes from Damascus to the same. This is the main supply route for the troops Assad stationed in Aleppo (although not the only one). After the first day of disorientation, the Syrian army quickly brought in reinforcements, slowing down the advance of the Islamist militiamen and also starting to conduct localized counterattacks yesterday. In any case, the situation still remains very fluid and characterized by the so-called “fog of war”.
An important role in the recent clashes belongs to the Syrian and, above all, Russian air force. That the regime of Assad is closely linked to Moscow is well known, without the intervention of the Kremlin in the civil war the regime would certainly have been brought down by the military pressure of the Syrian rebels and ISIS.
Furthermore, the role of Iran, which considers the Syria a fundamental piece of that “Shiite crescent” (Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon) which is the fulcrum of the imperial aspirations of the country of the ayatollahs. The Iranian presence in Syria it is strong, and recent events confirm it. Yesterday the killing of an Iranian general was announced, Kioumars Pourhasehemifollowing the recent offensive by Islamist militiamen west of Aleppo.
An offensive which also seems to have regained strength this morning, with the attacks of Hts which are now concentrating south-west of Aleppo, more or less along the route of the highway m5.
It is difficult to make predictions about the future, if on the one hand the numerical superiority of the Syrian army (supported by Moscow and Tehran), which also enjoys an overwhelming air superiority over the Islamist militiamen, would in the long term tip the scales in favor of Damascuson the other hand we certainly cannot forget that Moscow is currently concentrated in Ukraine, while Hezbollah (which in past years provided military support to the Syrian government) is currently not in a position to effectively help the regime Assad due to the losses suffered at the hands of Israel. Furthermore, the link between Hts and the Türkiyethe Ankara army has installed dozens of military outposts in the territory controlled by Islamist militiamen around the city of Idlib, also facilitating the passage of military supplies for them.
The Syrian “world” war has just reopened.
