The decision of the Prime Minister who opens the road to OPS arrives. Thursday the MPS assembly decides on the operation
The scholarship smiled at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, with the rising title of 2.5% to 6.33 euros, in line with a toned banking sector (+2.3% the FTSE MIB), but above all driven by the news that the Italian government has decided not to exercise the Golden Power on the public exchange offer (OPS) launched on Mediobanca, which in turn recorded an increase in the increase in the 4.3%, reaching 15.15 euros.
The resolution of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers represents a key step for the operation announced by the Sienese group in Januarywhich aims to create a new Italian banking center. A expected, but still significant decision: the renunciation of the use of special powers by the executive has cleared the field from any political obstacles and gave a clear signal to the market. The government not only does not oppose, but explicitly supports the strategy led by CEO Luigi Lovaglio, sharing its industrial logic and the political objective of building a strong national bank, also able to counter potential foreign assaults in the insurance sector, such as those related to the fate of Generali.
But now the attention shifts to the MPS share assembly convened for April 17thcalled to approve the financial statements and, above all, the capital increase at the service of the OPS. A very delicate passage, because for the green light it will be necessary to vote for at least 66% of the voters
In view of the appointment, the map of the share sides is defining itself, despite some gray areas. So far, the main supporters of the operation are the MEF (today at 11.7%), Delfin and Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone (the latter climbed to about 9%). Together, they already represent almost 30% of the capital and will make compact in favor of the increase. A further 1%, as already announced, arrive from the front of the foundations, from MPS to the Compagnia di San Paolo, which historically support the Sienese Institute.
More uncertain is the orientation of the Banco Bpm block and soulwhich holds a combined share close to 9–10%. Although analysts consider a favorable vote probable, no official confirmation has arrived. The knot will be dissolved by the board of directors scheduled for tomorrow. The green disc would make the consensus rise close to 40%, consolidating the operation.
On the institutional investors front, there is a large favorable front that includes some of the most relevant names of global finance. Norges Bank, the Norwegian sovereign fund with a share of 2.6%, announced its support. Pimco, with about 1.5%, has already built a solid ratio in the past and is ready to support the operation. Algebris by Davide Serra also fed publicly in favor, recalling the industrial logic and the solidity of the numbers at the base of the offer.
But not all the shareholder is compact. Some international funds, albeit with minority shares, have already expressed a opposite opinion. These include the Pension Fund of the State of Florida (0.13%), the Calvert fund of the Morgan Stanley Group, New York City Comproroller (0.16%) and CPP Investments, Canadian pension fund with 0.7%. Their dissent, more than quantitative, is symbolic: it marks a distance from the strategic vision proposed by Mount and its main shareholders.
Further uncertainties emerge from the proxy advisor, That is, those companies that offer voting recommendations to institutional investors. Here too there is a rift: Glass Lewis recommended to vote in favor of the capital increase, while ISS instead suggested that they express himself against. The positions of the proxy advisor could significantly influence the behavior of passive funds and the most cautious institutional investors.
Meanwhile, there is an interesting fact on the market: The concambium between MPS and Mediobanca shares stands in area 2.39, above the ratio officially proposed by MPS (2,3), a sign of growing market trust in the success of the operation or, at least, in its industrial convenience.
With the Golden Green traffic light and the support of several key investors, the OPS on Mediobanca appears closer to transform from suggestion to reality. However, the outcome remains hanging on the votes of April 17. It will be a decisive count, with the potential to rewrite the balance of the Italian banking system.
