The green transition is underway in China. Electric cars are one step away from overtaking traditional ones in the country. The Financial Times’ calculations leave no doubt: China was supposed to achieve these results in 2035 and instead it will get there in 2025, ten years early. With these numbers, competition is inevitable. The advantage over Western competitors is clear. Norway remains the leader for now, thanks above all to incentives financed by oil. The other European countries are chasing and struggling.
China, therefore, for the first time in history, next year will produce and sell more electric cars than traditional ones. The Financial Times analysis (on UBS, HSBC, Morningstar and Wood Mackenzie data) predicts 12 million units, i.e. an increase of 20% compared to 2024. At the same time, internal combustion engine cars will be 11 million units, decreasing by 10%. “They want to electrify everything. No other country has come as close to this goal as China,” commented Robert Liew, director of renewables research at Wood Mackenzie. A result that only four years ago was optimistically predicted for 2035. But the race was much faster. Ten years early.
And while China is racing at a fast pace, Europe and the United States are slowing down. In the Old Continent, electric cars account for just 12.5% of new registrations, and sales have fallen in key markets such as France and Germany. In the United States, e-cars are struggling even more, held back by high costs, insufficient infrastructure and duties on Chinese imports.
Norway, despite overtaking Beijing, remains the world leader in terms of market share of electric cars. In 2024, nine out of ten new cars registered were electric. A record obtained above all thanks to the incentives (elimination of VAT, free parking etc….) financed with revenues from the oil industry.
In the rest of Europe things are going slowly. In nine European Union countries the share of hybrid and electric vehicles has exceeded 50%. Looking at electric only, we are at 34% in Finland (78% also counting hybrid), 39% in Sweden (69% with hybrid) and 31% in the Netherlands (68% with hybrid). Italy is mid-table, around 50% (electric plus hybrid). At the bottom of the ranking are Croatia (28%), Czech Republic (20%) and Bulgaria (7%). The green transition in cars is progressing. Confirmation from Brussels in recent days. The Vice President of the European Commission Roxana Minzatu announced that the revision of the European rules that prohibit the registration of new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 remains scheduled for 2026. No advance to 2025 as requested by several states, including Italy.
Western manufacturers risk losing even more market share and 2025 will be the crucial year to understand whether Beijing will maintain its competitive advantage. Internal competition and increasing saturation of the internal market and external duties could hinder the advantage gained so far.
