Over 3 million Italian workers will leave their jobs in the next four years. It means, according to the study of the Cgia of Mestre, of 12.5% of the national workforce. A “social security tsunami” that risks redesigning the labor market deeply, already in trouble due to the difficulty in finding labor. And pensions are at the center of the political agenda. With the “maneuver construction site” that gives the first signs from the Rimini meeting where the Undersecretary for Labor Claudio Durigon sparked the debate speaking of a freezing of the increase in the retirement age, of a transformation of the TFR into an annuity, for early retirement and farewell to 103.
The study of the CGIA: three million retired Italian workers by 2029
To quantify the phenomenon is the Cgia Study Office of Mestre, which has processed the data of the Unioncamere Excelsior information system and the Ministry of Labor. The balance is clear: in just five years the country will lose a share of workers never seen before. Of the slightly more than three million senses expected, 1.6 million will concern private employees (52.8%of the total), 768 thousand will affect the public administration (25.2%) and 665 thousand self -employed workers (21.9%). In large part there will be exits for age limits, but there will be cases of voluntary withdrawals, loss of employment, migrations abroad or independent work. Data that alert companies, already now struggling with the chronic lack of qualified labor in different sectors, and the state that dealing with the weight that this exodus will have on social security expenditure.
Durigon at the Rimini Meeting: TFR on an annuity, stop to the increase in age and farewell to 103
The future of the social security system will certainly be at the center of the debate on the next maneuver also this year and the Undersecretary for Work has opened the debate Claudio Durigon, who illustrated the guidelines of the executive strategy (or the League) in social security matters from the Rimini Meeting. In the center, three guidelines: the freezing of the detriment of the retirement age provided since 2027, the use of severance pay as a pension income and the revision of the current early exit channels.
The first point concerns the so -called “Fornero step”. Without interventions, in 2027 the age for the old -age pension would rise from 67 to 67 years and 3 months based on automatic adaptation to life expectancy. Stopping the increase would cost about one billion euros per year, for a total of about 2 billion in the two-year period 2027-2028, according to INPS estimates. Durigon explained that he had already collected the opening of the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti to insert the measurement measure, even if the node of the roofs remains.
The second novelty concerns Tfr. The idea is to allow those who are at least 64 years old and 25 years of contributions to transform the accumulated liquidation into an annuity, so as to fill the minimum check threshold equal to three times the social allowance (1,616 euros per month). The measure, on a voluntary basis, would reduce or reset the liquidation perceived in a single solution, but would guarantee more dignified pensions and a subsidized taxation, similar to that already foreseen for pension funds. In addition, the use of the severance pay in this form would avoid a significant impact on INPS accounts, since the 6.8 billion euros of liquidations paid every year would be spread in several installments rather than liquidated in one fell swoop. Durigon imagines a double employment of the instrument: on the one hand to anticipate the exit, on the other to finance Long Term Care funds intended for non self -sufficient.
On the front of the other measures, the Undersecretary said that Quota 103 He exhausted his push: in 2024 the retirements paid with this formula were just 1,153, a collapse compared to over 23 thousand questions from 2023. “It no longer represents an optimal form of flexibility,” he admitted. The fate of Women’s optionwhich even with very low numbers (just over a thousand pensions paid in the first half of 2025) will be “strengthened” to take into account the weight of the care work on the workers.
Finally, there is the incentive chapter. For those who choose to stay at work despite the requirements, the so -called Giorgetti bonusthe tax exemption on the employee contributions should be confirmed and relaunched as a tool of “freedom of choice”.
INPS, Due to the mouth of President Gabriele Fava, he limited himself to underlining that every decision belongs to the legislator, reaffirming the willingness to faithfully implement the rules that will be introduced. Unions and oppositionsInstead, they remain critical: on the one hand the risk that the use of the severance pay reduces the power of choice of workers, on the other the doubts about the real financial sustainability of the freezing of age.
