The president of the United States, Joe Bidenrecently received a detailed report containing plans for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, Axios correspondent reported, Barak Ravid. The documents, presented about a month ago by national security adviser Jake Sullivan, outline scenarios in the event of an acceleration of Iran’s nuclear programs. The options, developed to address the possibility that Iran attempts to produce a nuclear bomb before the president-elect takes office Donald Trumpscheduled for January 20th, do not represent an imminent decision for military intervention, sources close to the agency specified White House. The meetings have been described as “an exercise in prudent scenario planning”. However, the urgency of these discussions is linked to fears that Iran could begin enriching uranium to the threshold necessary for nuclear weapons in the coming months. According to administration sources, the White House believes that Iran’s strategic weakening – due to the destruction of its regional allies such as Hamas And Hezbollah, to the Syrian regime’s loss of support Bashar al-Assad and the compromise of Israel’s air defenses – may represent an unmissable opportunity for action. At the same time, recent developments in Iran’s nuclear program have strengthened the imperative to consider concrete action. Concerns also focus on the possible consequences of recent losses suffered by Iran. The White House fears that Tehran could accelerate its nuclear ambitions, seeing transformation into a nuclear power as the only way to re-establish the prestige (even internal) and stability of the past.
Iran’s illicit activities
According to the International Agency for Atomic Energy (IAEA)there are four sites in Iran of particular concern regarding illicit nuclear activities: Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, Marivan and Turquzabad. The IAEA has documented the escalation of Tehran in terms of the enriched uranium stored and the purity to which the uranium was enriched. In January 2021, the IAEA confirmed that Iran had resumed enriching uranium to 20% at its Fordow facility, exceeding the limits imposed by the JCPOA in 2015, which allowed a maximum enrichment of 3.67%. In April 2021, Iran began enriching uranium to 60% at Natanz, and in November 2022, extended enrichment to 60% at Fordow as well. In February 2023, uranium particles enriched to 83.7% were found at the Fordow nuclear site, close to the level required for weapons production. In late 2023, the IAEA reported that Tehran had increased its production and stockpiles of enriched uranium to 60% at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) in Natanz and at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). Second the Institute for Science and International Securityas of February 2024, Iran’s “breakout time” – the time needed to produce a nuclear weapon – was about a week. This report highlights that the unstable situation in Middle East offers Iran a domestic justification to accelerate the construction of nuclear weapons.
The IAEA’s fears
According to the IAEA’s definition of ‘significant quantity’ – i.e. the quantity of nuclear material sufficient to make an explosive device -, at the end of 2023 Iran possessed enough enriched uranium to produce three nuclear weapons, should it decide to enrich further to 90% purity, level required for weapons. To make matters worse, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said in March 2024 that the agency “has lost continuity of knowledge on (Iran’s) production and inventory of centrifuges, rotors, bellows, water heavy and concentrated uranium ore.” Meanwhile, Iran has announced that nuclear talks will be held with France, Great Britain and Germany in Switzerland on January 13th. The AFP news agency reported this, citing local media sources. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed the news, underlining however that “it will be about consultations, not negotiations”. This announcement follows accusations made on December 17 by European nations, who denounced Iran’s accumulation of highly enriched uranium at levels described as “unprecedented and without credible civil justification”. Since the United States’ unilateral exit from the 2015 nuclear deal during the Trump administration, Iran has progressively reduced its compliance with its commitments. Among the measures taken are the ban on access to UN inspectors and the expansion of uranium enrichment capacities. These developments continue to cause deep concern in the international community.
