The re-election of Donald Trump it has shaken, indeed, reopened old wounds and new controversies in a world that seemed to have become accustomed to the diplomacy of half-hearted words. With a freshness typical of the unexpected, Trump it has reignited debates, aroused euphoria in some capitals and deep concerns in others. At center stage, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and American support for Kiev: how long will it last? How much will it be compromised? The answer, or the mystery, depends on Washington.
We’re talking about a Trump «solver»: realism or political fantasy? Trump’s promise was immediately clear, envisaging a resolution of the conflict “in 24 hours”.. Few take it literally, but many perceive a concrete signal. According to the Washington Post, Trump confided that one of his quick solutions would be to persuade Kiev to cede Crimea and Donbass, giving Moscow a coveted victory. “Dangerous for Ukrainian sovereignty”, however, analysts said, although for the newly re-elected president it seems like a classic “Trump-style” deal», with direct negotiations and chisel solutions.
Kiev’s reaction was not long in coming. Zelenskyin a video message posted on Telegramexpressed hope that Trump “contribute to a just peace for Ukraine”, but the uncertainty is palpable, you can see it on his face. And while Zelensky emphasizes “peace through strength” as a possible guiding principle, in Kiev one wonders whether Trump’s America is really willing to defend Ukrainian sovereignty as in the past.
From Moscow, the outlook is cynical and pragmatic. Dmitry Medvedevvice-president of the Russian Security Council, spoke today on Telegram with the detachment of someone who is convinced they have got the new American president in place. Trump“a businessman to the core”, according to Medvedev, hates “wasting money” on a series of “freeloaders and parasites, somewhat foolish allies, useless charity projects and greedy international organizations”.
Ukraine, described as “toxic and Banderist”, would fit perfectly into this group, according to the Russian politician. The real unknown, however Medvedevis to understand to what extent the system will be able to “extract funds from Trump for the war”. He, after all, is tenacious, but the American apparatus is powerful. Meanwhile, the Russian politician leaves his followers with a stark image: “the green worm in Kiev will submerge itself in the dusty white up to its ears.” Words that in Moscow are welcomed with a certain complacency, evoking scenarios that could benefit Russian strategy in the conflict.
Putin, less theatrical but equally satisfied, said he sees the intention positively Trump to «put an end to the conflict in Ukraine». After all, at the top BRICS of Kazan last October, as reported by New York Posthad already said he was ready to “discuss any proposal that could lead to peace”. An opening? Perhaps, but the Kremlin knows well the risks of direct negotiations with the unpredictable president.
In Brussels, smiles are cold and caution is a must. Despite public declarations of collaboration, European leaders are adopting a cautious attitude, aware of the repercussions that Trump’s re-election could have on security and stability. The French president Emmanuel Macron expressed openness to dialogue with the new American leader, hoping for a relationship based on mutual respect and common objectives of peace and prosperity.
Behind these formal words, however, uncertainty prevails. The EU fears that a US disengagement from military support for Ukraine would leave Europe to face Moscow’s threats alone. Furthermore, the past statements of Trump on NATO have already fueled tensions in Brussels, raising doubts about future transatlantic cooperation. The shadow of a more isolationist America looms over a Europe that could find itself on the front line, with all the implications of a potential political earthquake in the heart of the old continent.
In Budapest, however, it is very different and we toast. Viktor Orbánone of the main European supporters of Trumpcelebrates openly: «a very important victory for the world», he wrote on X, a wish that leaves very little room for the imagination. Orbánwhich has always displayed skepticism towards sanctions against Russia, now sees an opportunity to “revise its support for Ukraine” under a new, and more American, influence.
In this game of shadows and lights, Zelensky is more in the balance than ever. Every word, every silence weighs like stones. The call for a “just peace”addressed to Trump on the part of the Ukrainian president exudes diplomacy, but hides concrete concerns. What would happen if Washington actually decided to reduce support for Kiev? The reality is that Ukraine’s position risks weakening, and its sovereignty will inevitably suffer. Nevertheless, Zelensky he can only hope that the new presidency does not dash Ukraine’s hopes for freedom.
And so, the scenario that opens up seems suspended between the hope of a resolution and the fear of a surrender disguised as peace. Trump he promised to resolve a conflict that seems to have festered, the conflict has lasted for over 10 years, with a particularly intense phase in the last 2 years and 8 months, but will it really be like this? From Brussels to Moscow, from Kiev to Budapest, the world holds its breath. America, with its irreverent voice, is preparing once again to be the arbiter, or disruptor, of a complex peace.
