After years of policies that have contributed to making fuel production increasingly less convenient, Brussels is now sounding the alarm. And he realizes that more refineries are needed.
If it’s not an about-face, we’re close. On October 28, in Brussels, the refineries they have returned to the side of the industries to be saved. At the table convened by European Commissionnext to the Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensenthe one in Defense sat, Andrius Kubiliusand also participated Born. «We will work to increase the production of refining plants in Europe», announced Jorgensen.
After years of policies that have contributed to making it increasingly less convenient to produce fuel on the continent, Brussels is discovering that without diesel And kerosene neither the economy nor the armies move. «The geopolitical crises of recent years have shown how risky it can be to depend on foreign countries not only for energy sources, but also for refined products», he observes Gianni Muranopresident ofUnemthe association of Italian companies in the refining, logistics and distribution of petroleum and low carbon products. «It is significant that today the European Commission itself defines this crisis as a “wake-up call” and states that it is necessary to counteract the decline of European refining, ensuring the continent has adequate and flexible production capacity. Only a few years ago it would have been difficult to imagine such an explicit statement.”
The turning point in Brussels after the industrial retreat
The awakening comes after a long retreat. According to the picture illustrated by Murano a Panoramasince 2009 around 30 refineries have been closed or reconverted in Europe: approximately 160 million tons annual capacity, one fifth of the total. In the perimeter that includes the European Union, the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland, 72 main plants remain. But the problem is not just how many there are. What matters is what they can produce, at what cost and with what margin to deal with an emergency. In the geography of refining China And United States are the two giants, followed by Russia And India; The Gulf countries and South Korea also play a role in exports. The United States remains the main producer of gasoline and jet fuel, while China, India and the Middle East have strengthened the production of distillates, the family to which diesel and aviation kerosene belong.
A huge part of China’s production serves the domestic market. For importing Europe, it is above all who has fuel to sell that matters, not just who owns multiple plants. «In this context, refining capacity is not disappearing, it is moving», summarizes Murano. «In fact, while Europe has reduced its capacity by around 20%, in other areas of the world they have continued to build large, modern and strongly export-oriented plants». The result, he adds, is that a growing share of European demand has been “delegated” to countries with lower energy costs, environmental burdens and CO2 prices. The plants move elsewhere and we buy their products, increasing the strategic dependence.
The shock of wars and the diesel issue
Wars have fallen on this industrial redistribution. The conflict with theIran hit refineries and shipping links in the Gulf; Ukrainian attacks have put pressure on the Russian system. A study of Dallas Federal Reservepublished October 8, describes one refining shock which is added to the oil one: damage to plants, transport difficulties and commercial restrictions have taken away from the market, since late spring, the equivalent of 6-8 million barrels per day of available capacity. Not all refineries are destroyed: the estimate also includes logistical constraints and production limitations.
Diesel is at the center of the crisis. It fuels trucks, agricultural machinery, construction sites and the armed forces: its scarcity is passed on to the production and distribution costs of almost every commodity. And it is not enough for crude oil to return to transit regularly Hormuz for everything to be resolved. A damaged refinery can take months to repair; the Dallas Fed warns that the margins between oil prices and fuel values may remain high even after the normalization of routes. In short, the price of a barrel no longer tells the whole story of the energy crisis. You can have raw materials available and still pay very dearly for the finished product.
Washington’s moves up to Moscow
The United States, despite being a refining giant and a major exporter, is also seeking additional supplies. They import fuels to compensate for regional imbalances: the Gulf of Mexico produces a lot while the eastern and western coasts resort to foreign countries. In fact, logistical constraints can make it more convenient to buy European petrol than to transfer American petrol.
At the same time, Washington is trying to secure raw materials: Vitol And Transfigure have obtained licenses to market Venezuelan crude oil under agreements promoted by Trump. The search for diesel fuel has taken Washington all the way to Moscow. On October 9, Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin for Russian supplies to the United States and the world market, accompanied by a temporary easing of sanctions. The agreement allowed Russian producers to obtain export quotas in derogation of internal restrictions.
The European imbalance and the climate paradox
Europe is facing this competition with a structural imbalance. It also produces petrol for export, but not enough diesel and jet fuel.
The Commission indicates that Union refineries cover approximately85% of diesel and the 70% of aviation fuel consumed in Europe. That missing 15% of diesel is the vulnerable point: it must come from an international market where supplies can be interrupted by wars or withheld by governments to protect domestic consumers. And a refinery cannot change the composition of the products at will: to increase some yields, plants and investments are needed. Having a surplus of gasoline does not automatically solve the diesel shortage.
Why did we get this far? Murano does not speak of a declared war on the refineries, but of high energy costs, price of CO2overlapping regulations, authorization uncertainty and extra-European competition. There climate policy it added to economic pressures. «The paradox is evident: Europe has set very ambitious climate objectives, but at the same time has not built an industrial strategy capable of accompanying the transformation of refineries or designing its own industrial fabric», he maintains.
And remember that these plants also supply fuel for navigation and defense and about half of the raw materials used bychemical industry. They are not just petrol factories destined to become useless with the electric car.
The weight of Italy and the challenge of the transition
THE’Italy maintains an important base: 10 traditional refineries, two biorefineries and a third under construction Livorno. The capacity indicated by Unem is 83.3 million tons annually; in 2025 the production of refined products was 63.7 million. According to Murano, the system abundantly covers the national demand for the main products, except jet fuel, of which we import 20-30% of our needs. Four refineries belong to foreign-controlled groups; Milazzo is 50% owned by Eni and 50% from Kuwait Petroleum Italy. For the president of Unem, what matters above all is that the plants continue to produce, invest and transform in Italy.
In short, the Brussels table is a first step, not yet a program for new refineries. The Commission proposes to optimize existing facilities and build a common roadmap. Recovering production means first of all not losing any more and creating conditions for investing.
The hope is that the European rediscovery of the sector will arrive before the next closures. Because a refinery can be stopped, but reopening it is another story. And there transition it can change fuels: it cannot cancel by decree the need to produce them.
