The Tel Aviv-based INSS analyst accuses the Iranian regime of using negotiations to buy time, denounces the IRGC’s proxy network in Europe and claims that the ayatollah’s system is increasingly fragile internally.
While talks between Iranian and American delegations continue in Doha and much of the international media describes a now “broadly defined” agreement, Beni Sabti maintains a prudent attitude. «The situation changes hour by hour. I don’t believe in a real agreement,” says the Israeli analyst, born in Tehran in the 1970s and fled Iran with his family in 1987. Last Monday Sabti it was a Milan to participate in a press briefing organized byEuropean Israel Press Association at Pirellone, headquarters of Lombardy Regionwith the support of Forza Italia and of theItaly-Israel Association of Milan. According to what was reported by the organizers, the Lombard Journalists’ Clubie theForeign Press Association they initially joined the initiative and then later withdrew.
Speaking of negotiations, Sabti claims that Tehran have no intention of seriously discussing nuclearballistic missiles, regional armed groups or terrorism. The Iranian objective, according to him, would only be to freeze the crisis in Strait of Hormuz without making concrete concessions. However, the analyst identifies the main problem in the American attitude. Donald Trumphe explains, would have changed the strategy several times during the conflict, stopping Israeli operations and ignoring operational procedures that included control of the Strait of Hormuz in case of emergency in the Gulf. A line that would have weakened the trust of Gulf Arab countries towards Washington. Qatar, Oman And Saudi Arabia they would in fact be seeking an accommodation with Tehran not out of sympathy for the regime, but out of fear of being left without American protection. «Iran he has become the mafia boss of the region: those close to him prefer to pay and hope to be left in peace.”
Sabti also rejects the Western narrative that describes the Islamic Republic as a resilient system. According to him, the Iranian regime is going through an advanced stage of internal deterioration. «It no longer functions as a state that guarantees services to citizens, but as a military and ideological structure that occupies its own territory». In support of his thesis he cites some internal polls leaked in 2025 by Iranian government platforms, according to which the 92% of the population is hostile to the regime. Another survey, carried out a few years earlier, would have shown that the 75% of Iranians have positive feelings towards Jews and that about half of the population accepts the existence of Israel. «These are opinions that in Iran you cannot express publicly without risking consequences,” he underlines. For the analyst, the slogan repeated in the protests from 2009 to today perfectly summarizes popular discontent: “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, only Iran”. Second Sabtiduring the presidency of Joe Biden Tehran it would accelerate its nuclear program convinced that it could resist any international pressure. The same process would continue even after Trump’s return to the White House. The analyst claims that Israel And United States they hit theIran in June 2025 when the regime was now close to military nuclear capability. However, the first offensive would end prematurely due to an American decision. The second attack in February 2026 would also have been characterized by continuous and sudden changes in strategic line on the part of Washington.
Among the most serious errors, second Sabtithere would have been the suspension of the targeted eliminations of the Pasdaran leaders after just two weeks of war. «The real power is in the hands of ten or fifteen people. If they had been eliminated, the situation would be completely different today.” The analyst cites the Supreme Leader among these figures Mojtaba Khamenei who is still alive although seriously injured, never appearing in public after the attack in which his father died Ali Khamenei. On the nuclear level, Sabti believes that the Isfahan plants, Natanz And Fordow have suffered damage sufficient to slow down Iran’s atomic program by at least three years. A decisive element would also have been the killing of at least 18 nuclear scientists. Despite the difficulties, the analyst considers a new conflict likely. THE’Iran would have already resumed the reconstruction of missile infrastructure by introducing technical modifications and would have increased the funds allocated to Hezbollahpassed by 750 million to over a billion dollars per year through Turkish channels. Second Sabti, Tehran would also have attempted to transfer $400 million to Hamas after the war. «The country is destroyed and they continue to finance Hamas» observes the analyst. The popular protests that exploded between December and January, which had brought millions of people to the streets, gradually died down also due to the internet blackout imposed by the regime for over ninety consecutive days.
On the European front, Sabti claims that the Iranian regime controls at least sixteen propaganda organizations active on the continent. The recruitment, he explains, would not only concern Middle Eastern communities. He says he reported an Islamic center in 2024 Stockholm who organized activities for Swedish children using symbols and songs related to Hamas. “That center was closed, but others have appeared.” In Italy, he adds, there are over four hundred Islamic centers, many of which have no official registration. Sabti reports having analyzed channels Telegram Italians with radicalization content and children’s shows in which the protagonist dies as a martyr. “As a child, I too participated in that type of propaganda in Iran,” he says. According to the analyst, the real European limit concerns the lack of adequate linguistic skills. «In English they talk about peace, but in Persian and Arabic they spread completely different messages». Sabti he concludes by expressing concern also for the relationship between Israel And Washington. In his opinion the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu ended up being too dependent on the decisions of Trumplosing strategic autonomy at decisive moments. “When you are too close to an ally you risk following their priorities instead of yours.” Speaking of the possible post-regime future, Sabti he argues that the problem is not so much identifying a single leader but supporting the Iranian people. «The boots on the ground already exist: they are the Iranians against the regime. We must help them neutralize the repressive system.”
