Scudetto and Champions League share, the real problems of the big teams in crisis, the lies about VAR and penalties, the dismissals and everything you need to know about the first third of the season that has been archived.
The championship has consumed almost a third of its journey: 11 days out of 38, too early to draw definitive conclusions, not to begin to consolidate trends that will accompany us until late May. It’s a season with many goals, a big gap between the big teams and the provincial teams, with some surprises and many confirmations. There is no designated master yet, but rather the feeling that Inter can travel at a higher cruising speed than their opponents and that, when they want, they are able to put all their superiority to the ground: so far the others have held up and surpassed themselves, but their ability to maintain the same match pace for ten months will have to be demonstrated.
Some of the secrets of this start to the season are hidden in the statistics. Some are surprising, others less so. They all photograph in their own way what the first 110 games of the year told us. It is good to note them now that we are entering the second (last of 2026) break to make room for the national teams.
Lazio, not a record-breaking record: here’s who won with those points
The 29 points out of 33 for Gattuso’s Lazio are not an anomaly in absolute terms. Only stopping at the last ten years, it is the same performance as Napoli in 2022/2023 (then scudetto at 90 points), Juventus in 2019/2020 (scudetto with 83) and is lower than the 31 of Juventus and Milan in 2021/2022 (title to the Rossoneri with 86 points), and Allegri’s Juventus in 2018/2019 (bianconeri champions with 90) and Napoli 2017/2018 (then mocked by Juventus’ 95 points).
Record-breaking Champions League zone: how many points will be needed?
Running at a record pace is the Champions League zone which usually dances between 70 and 72 points. To give an idea of the pace that the top of the class are keeping, not just Lazio, it is enough to underline that the final projection of Milan who currently occupies fourth place is placed at 83 points. Almost a share of the championship. And Como, which at the moment would be the first of those excluded from Europe to count, is just under 80.
Moral? There will almost certainly be a retreat towards more “humane” heights but those who are chasing cannot lose even a minute because this unsustainable pace digs furrows that are difficult to withstand even psychologically.
A year ago and… today: all better except two
In the higher areas of the table they are all performing better than last year. They range from the 14 points more of Gattuso’s Lazio compared to Sarri’s, who however was going through a terrible moment, to the surprising +5 of Como on themselves despite also facing the hardships of the Champions League. Inter (+4), Roma (+3) and Milan (+2 on Allegri who started by monetizing the famous short-faced victories) also showed sustained growth.
Everyone is laughing except Juventus and Napoli: Spalletti is one point behind last season’s pace, which cost Tudor his place, while Allegri is actually 7 points behind Conte who was already struggling with the autumn crisis.
Goals as if it were raining: +27%
A lot is marked, everyone can choose the explanation they prefer for the trend which is also consolidated and confirmed by the almost disappearance of zero-to-zeros. In the first 110 games of the championship, 342 goals were scored with an average of 3.10 per game which is significantly higher than the 2.43 of the entire last championship.
Two-speed referees and VAR
In the first 11 days of the championship there were a total of 26 VAR interventions including on-field reviews and overrules (calls overturned without the need to send the referee to the monitor). The overall average is lower than last year: 0.23. Be careful, however, because there is a before and after the break in September and October which the Orsato refereeing team had arrived at having kept the Var room in Lissone practically turned off.
From the 6th to the 11th matchday, there were 22 VAR interventions with an average of 0.36 per match, very close to the old habits. Statistics that belie the narrative built around the line of the new referee whose account (of the narrative) must also be placed on the silent acceptance of a non-trivial quantity of refereeing errors.
Penalties up compared to a year ago
The same goes for penalty kicks too. On the 11th day there are 24 of which 5 in the top 5 and the other 19 after the break. The overall average is 0.22 per game, slightly lower than the 0.28 and 0.27 of the previous two seasons. After the national break in September, however, it rose to 0.31 even though in everyone’s mind there is the fact that the war on “penalties” was fought and won. Furthermore, there are some glaring ones missing that were not granted.
Gattuso miracle, the primacy of the defense
Lazio’s record is extraordinary also because it is not reflected in almost any of the fundamentals that photograph the performance of a team. Gattuso’s Biancocelesti, the true creator of what is happening, are leaders in the standings despite being only the third attack in terms of goals scored (25), the tenth in terms of shots fired (150) and the eleventh in terms of expected xGoals (16.8).
In contrast, there is a defense that is the best in the league for goals conceded (only 9) despite having conceded many shots (126 of which 49 on target, a specialty in which they are ninth in Serie A) and expected goals against (14.6).
Spalletti, the problem is a provincial attack
Most of Juventus’ problems are concentrated in attack, a department where the club invested a hundred million in the summer between Kolo Muani, Alajbegovic and Ekhator. The numbers are merciless: 15 goals scored, better only than Lecce, Udinese, Genoa, Cagliari, Parma and Venezia), thirteenth position for expected xGoals (16.0), eighth for shots on target (5.2 per game) and even sixteenth for scoring percentage (8.3%). Houston, we have a problem…
The mediocritas of Allegri’s Napoli
Max Allegri’s Neapolitan version is currently neither fowl nor fowl. He is neither defensive nor playful, his team has significantly raised the center of gravity but has lost balance and certainty behind it and the numbers explain perfectly why we shouldn’t be surprised by the tenth place in the standings.
Napoli has the seventh attack in Serie A (18 goals scored) and the tenth defense (14) and does not stray too far from these positions even in the fundamentals that build the main statistics. With one exception: third place for expected xGoals, a sign that there is also a lack of a stocker who translates the little bit of play that is made into scoring turnover.
Boom exemptions (and it’s not over yet)
A year ago after 11 days there were 4 benches missed: Atalanta, Fiorentina, Genoa and Juventus). Today we are at 5 with Aquilani more outside than inside. Many exemptions even arrived at the end of September, thanks to the debut of the new calendar with the maxi three-week break ideal for a new coach to work. In general we are returning to the old days when Italian football was a football of presidents and managers eager to unload even their own failures on the coaches.
