The effects and meanings of the fall of Avdiivka

A minor defeat or the start of the new Russian advance? Is this a sign that the Western coalition is less close to Kiev than two years ago or just a losing battle due to a banal question of men and resources?

There are several questions raised by the retreat from Avdiivka of the Kiev troops who left the city to the Russian army.

According to strategic analyst Virgilio Lo Presti: «Avdiivka's fate was already sealed at the beginning of January; the problem was not if but when the former citizen would fall. Ukrainian inferiority had been manifested for some time in all sectors: number of soldiers available, lack of counter-battery fire, inferiority in the number of armored vehicles. The 110th Ukrainian Armored Brigade fought until exhausted, without ever receiving the right rotation to let the troops catch their breath. The 3rd Assault Brigade which has now intervened on the field should serve the purpose of releasing the 110th from Andiivka without suffering too many losses”

The Russians capture Avdiivka

The Russians capture Avdiivkawww.panorama.it

Here is the image that testifies to the fall of the city in the Donetsk area

And what will happen now?

«The conquest of Avdiivka in itself does not represent a fundamental change in the war balance in Ukraine. In my opinion, its defensive and psychological value is more significant. Avdiivka was a fortress city that had resisted the Russians for nine years and was an advanced position that threatened the city of Donetsk from a few kilometers away; with its fall the Russians guarantee themselves the unblocking of Donetsk and the end of the Ukrainian threat to this settlement. Almost a year after the conquest of the ruins of Bakhmut, the Russians can now boast of the capture of a new former Ukrainian city, although – just like in Bakhmut – at a frightening cost of human and material losses. At Avdiivka the Russians again demonstrated that they could carry out mass advances. On top of everything else, its conquest is a demonstration of the problem Ukraine has in recruiting new troops in the face of Russia's ability to gather large numbers of men under its flag and send them unflinchingly into the meat grinder of war. Just as in Bakhmut, as in the Second World War, in Avdiivka the number-power worked.”

The Declarations

Yesterday General Oleksandr Syrskyi, who took command of the Ukrainian armed forces on February 8, communicated via social media: «Kiev's troops are withdrawing from Avdiivka (in the Donetsk region ed.), to avoid being surrounded . We will take the necessary measures to stabilize the situation and maintain our positions, moving to more advantageous positions for the defense. Our soldiers fulfilled their military duty with dignity, doing everything possible to neutralize the best Russian military units and inflict significant losses on the enemy.” Shortly afterwards, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of the area, wrote on Telegram: «In compliance with the order received, we retreated from Avdiivka to previously prepared positions, based on the surrounding operational situation, in order to avoid encirclement and safeguard the life and health of our soldiers. I decided to withdraw our units from the city and establish ourselves in defense on more favorable lines. In a situation where the enemy is advancing on a sea of ​​corpses of his own soldiers and has ten times more ammunition at his disposal, this is the only reasonable decision.” Then the Ukrainian general who is commander of the operational and strategic group of the “Tavria” troops, admitted that during the retreat from Avdiivka “some forces” were taken prisoner by the Russians without however specifying their number. From Munich where he spoke at the Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared: «It isIt was a logical, right and professional decision to save as many lives as possible.”

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that optimal conditions currently do not exist to return to the negotiating table regarding the war in Ukraine. During an interview at the Munich Security Conference, the head of Chinese diplomacy specified that, despite this, “China will not give up its mediation efforts as long as there is a possibility of a peaceful resolution.” Then Wang Yi stressed the importance of starting peace talks as soon as possible to reduce losses on both sides involved. Wang Yi also mentioned the issue of sovereignty and territorial integrity, along with the security concerns of all countries. He also stated “that by acting on these fundamental principles, China has consistently sought to promote peace and facilitate peace talks in Ukraine.” Words about which it is legitimate to have many doubts given the closeness between Russians and Chinese. For the US Secretary of State Antony Blinkenwho spoke at the Munich Security Conference, the war in Ukraine «is a strategic debacle for Putin, for Russia which is now weaker».