Qualification in the Europe that matters is the hub through which the future plans of three properties pass. This is why the 36th matchday is fundamental in the race for the major cup and Como is hoping for a miracle.
There is much more at stake than participation in the next Champions League and there is also more than just the profit and loss account. No less than 60 million euros are at stake between being there and not being there, but in the case of Juventus, Milan and Roma, the sporting plans for the relaunch are also at stake because staying out of the richest cup would mean entering a tunnel whose exit would not be close.
Translated into a nutshell: for Milan it would be the second consecutive season without Champions League revenues, a sort of black swan for the high-level Italian clubs that depend on it, for Juventus the tiring process of rebalancing the accounts would be interrupted (with heavy repercussions on the market) and for Roma it would be yet another failed landing. Cardinale, Elkann and Friedkin would find themselves having to intervene to patch the hole and it wouldn’t be pleasant.
Leao and Vlahovic, the future also depends on the Champions League
The image that summarizes includes two footballers with different but overlapping stories: Rafa Leao and Dusan Vlahovic. The first is the eternal incomplete of Milan, he is 27 years old and no longer has the value of a few years ago (when offers close to triple figures had arrived), he is a constant tactical misunderstanding and also a player who divides fans and critics: a luxury that the Rossoneri without the Champions League could not afford also because his departure would be one of the few operations capable of covering the lack of European revenue.
Vlahovic and Juventus, however, are the protagonists of a long farewell. Contract expiring on June 30th, salary (past) outside of any canon and future to be discussed also because the Bianconeri might be better off keeping him once they have finished amortizing the huge investment of almost 90 million euros for the winter of 2022. The Serbian niche player opens and closes the possibility and without the Champions League he would certainly continue to look elsewhere where he has been doing for months without, however, finding the solution he likes. Result: they talk, they take each other, they leave each other, they don’t conclude. They wait.
Champions League sprint: calendars compared
This is why the weekend of the 36th day of the championship is a fundamental turning point in the chase towards the Europe of the rich. Milan and Juventus, in strict order of standings, are in a tightrope while Roma and Como are chasing with plenty of cards to play. The deck, however, is in the hands of the first two who have reopened the door to their opponents with negative performances and results in recent weeks.
Milan hosts Atalanta and is in the midst of a technical, physical and results crisis: one victory in the last 5 matchdays, too little. After the derby of the championship hope the Rossoneri have weakened and with that step they really risk getting sucked in. The points (67) and the head-to-head matches (favorable with Roma and Como, equal with Juventus but with a negative in goal difference) still give us an advantage, but not starting to win again would make the last two at Marassi with Genoa and at home with Cagliari hell.
Juventus are in better condition, but after having failed at the Allianz Stadium with relegated Verona they no longer have any margin for error. Only a clear path with Lecce (away), Fiorentina (home) and Turin (away) guarantees the Champions League without looking at the results of the others. Woe betide you to get to the last minute having to ask the Granata for a pass in front of their fans.
What is the Champions League fee? It depends on Rome and Como
How many points are needed to secure the Champions League pass is decided by Rome and Como. It is above all Gasperini’s Giallorossi who give the cards. They start with 64 points and can close at most on 73 by beating Parma and Verona away and winning the derby against Lazio fresh from the Italian Cup final. If they were to climb up to there they would force Milan to collect 6 and Juventus to take full spoils. At 72 (two wins and a draw) Roma would make Milan’s job much easier (one win and two draws would be enough) while Juventus could give themselves an “X” by boasting a better direct comparison.
And Como? He has the easiest calendar between Verona, Parma and Cremonese but at most he can close on 71 points. Which are many, but which may not be enough unless Milan and Juventus puncture the tire again on the 36th matchday. In that case the last 180 minutes would truly become a four-horse sprint and everyone can save themselves.
