Mohsen Gozegara, a prestigious personality entitled to the history and power of Tehran, explains to Panorama the difficulties of the regime but also his solidity. Made of strong alliances and from being dominated, hidden, by 140 criminal gangs. And the riots in the square manage to change very little.
“The revolt in the squares in Iran and the current economic crisis will not suffice to drop the regime”. Mohsen Gozegara, certainly not just any Iranian, states it. At the end of the seventies, he was a leader of the Iranian student movement against Scià and, during the 1979 revolution, when he returned to Iran, he was at the side of the Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini. Above all, it was among those who founded the fearsome body of the Iranian revolutionary guards, the IRGC. Speaking of which, he says today: “They represent one of the three pillars of power indispensable to the current regime to continue to govern Iran”.
Regime that in turn, according to Sategara, is nothing more than “an cleptocracy that is mainly based on its repressive machine. The brain of this structure lies in the office of the Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei, while its eyes and arms are the Ministry of H intelligence and the organization of the ERGC intelligence. Then there are the soldiers of this apparatus, namely the basij, and finally the thugs paid to attack people on the street. In addition, the special police unit is also a fundamental part of this mechanism and, in periods of severe and widespread discontent, the IRGC that takes command of the repression operations. However, the domain today is exercised by over 140 mafia bands that operate within these same institutions and provide financial resources for crushing any opposition ». These are heavy words, which nail the Tehran government to their responsibilities and who confirm the architecture put into practice by the Ayatollah caste. It certainly cannot be said that Bozegara does not know what he is talking about, given that in the 1980s he was vice -president of the Prime Minister’s Office, then deputy minister of the heavy industries, president of the organization for the development and industrial renewal of Iran, finally deputy minister of planning and budget.
When his candidacy for the Presidency was rejected by the Guardian council in 2001, he started a campaign for a referendum on the reform of the Iranian Constitution. For this reason, in 2003 he was arrested by the Ministry of Whancer who had helped to raise to institution. Expatriate in America, today Mohsen Gozegara is “Visiting Fellow” at the Washington Institute, where he concentrates his studies on the prospects of political change in Iran and on democracy in Iran.
And in relation to this, his comment is caustic: «To obtain the victory in civil resistance, three minimal principles are needed: units, planning and maintenance of the non -violent discipline in the struggle. In a successful civil resistance plan, the three pillars (protests, non -cooperation and strikes, defections from the regime) must proceed together to obtain the final victory. In recent movements in Iran, however, we only witnessed the square protests, while the other elements were neglected ». Therefore, few hopes that the renewal in Iran takes place through public events. Even if in recent years there have been many signs in this sense, every time the illusion that the regime could fall has vanished within a few weeks. No dispute, however participated, held the time and all in the end repressed in the blood.
As for the international context and the network of alliances/connivances with the Tehran regime, the point of view of the former Islamic revolutionary is even clearer: «With October 7, 2023 (the attack on Israel who made 1,200 dead and 250 hostages, ed) Iran kicked off the war in Gaza. That action is part of the shadow war with Israel, ongoing for over four decades, and that day has come to light ». But together with the anti-Israeli project, all Iranian weakness also emerged: «In less than two years, Israel has suppressed and paralyzed both Hamas and Hezbollah. In a surprising series of events, the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria collapsed in just 11 days, with the consequent loss of the most critical operating bridge head of Iran for its flanking forces in the region. In addition, the Hashd al-Shaabi Iraqi (popular mobilization forces, shy paramilitary allied with Tehran, editor’s note) shows internal divisions and fears a potential American attack, while the Houthi (the rebels of Yemen, editor’s note) are under a heavy American bombing “.
Consequently, Gozegara continues, “the forces of the Islamic Republic in the region are currently at their weakest point. But this does not mean that power is abandoning them ». Why? “First of all, these organizations, Hezbollah in Lebanon above all, are partners in the production and distribution of drugs, in particular the Captagon pill, also notes” jihadist pill “(based on amphetamine, ed), which is sold in Europe, USA and Arab countries. In fact, the Islamic Republic has created a vast drug trafficking network that extends from Kabul to Venezuela. Secondly, the Iranian government tries to keep these groups alive by providing them with funds and equipment, with the intention of re -digging them at the right time. And they do not forget that most of the financial resources for these groups come from the same networks of mafia power and wealth in Iran, which are in turn connected to the cleptocracies of Russia, China, Venezuela and over 30 other countries not aligned with the West “.
But what do Pasdaran do in South America? Really an Islamic fundamentalist government, a theocracy moreover, does it create alliances so distant and sophisticated only for drug trafficking and financing terrorist activities? “There is more,” says Gozegara. «The Islamic Republic actively supports the conservation of dictatorships in countries such as, Cuba and Bolivia, with the help of Russia. An example is Venezuela, where he contributed to suppressing the movement led by Juan Guaidó and keeping Nicolás Maduro in power. Economic activities, such as the construction of housing, oil projects and others, constitute another part of the involvement of the Islamic Republic. In countries such as Argentina, the Buenos Aires attack that took Jewish civilians aiming is a remarkable example of the ability to act and the influence of the Iranian regime in Latin America (on July 18, 1994 a van full of chopped exploded in the basement of an Israelite association, making 85 deaths; for the massacre, a few weeks ago the prosecutor issued an international capture order against Ali Khamenei, ed). Today it is not different: in Brazil, for example, Hezbollah is working to expand his influence between the different million citizens of Lebanese expatriate origin ».
Despite this aggression, it seems that Tehran is evaluating the possibility of signing a new nuclear agreement with the United Statesas a first step towards a more complete and lasting agreement. What is the real plan of Ali Khamenei? «The supreme guide is under pressure from three parts. He has to face a disastrous economic situation and the fear of popular revolts, who push him to seek the revocation of the sanctions. But he must also keep up with the rich and powerful factions that draw billions of dollars of profit from the sanctions and that, for this reason, do not want to see them revoked. The third source of pressure comes from Russia through Moscow’s influence agents who move within the Iranian government and turn around Khamenei himself: they oppose any improvement in Iran’s relations with the United States, Europe and free countries. For these reasons, Ayatollah is now confused and undecided. Most of all, however, he and his commanders are deeply worried about a possible American attack because they do not want to be involved in a war ».
Khamenei, however, is 85 years old, is sick. So who after him? «For over a decade, he has planned his succession, laying the foundations so that his second child, Mojtaba, happens to him. However, Khamenei’s death will certainly open a political crisis and the rise of his heir to leadership will have to face numerous challenges ».
