Money, religion, oil and feuds. These are the variables at play in view of the mid-term elections, the so-called “Midterms”, which will be held in the United States on November 3rd, to renew the entire House and a third of the Senate. A vote which, in one sense or another, will predictably have a significant impact on the future of the presidency Donald Trump. And therefore all over the world.
Let’s start with the bucks. The news is that rivers of dollars have been flooding the electoral campaign for months. An unprecedented figure that has led to this round being described as “the most expensive in the history of the Midterms”. According to Bloomberg Newsa total of $4.7 billion in campaign finance has already been raised. At the level of national committees, the Republicans have raked in 917 million and the Dems 262. But the situation is reversed when looking at the campaigns of the individual candidates: here it is Asinello who is currently in the advantage. Already in mid-April, the political information portal TheHill reported how the Dem candidates were decidedly ahead of their Republican opponents in terms of fundraising (a sensational example is the collection of James Talaricowho won the Democratic primaries in Texas: for him the record of more than 27 million raised in the first four months of 2026).
And so far it’s money traced. Then there are the shares of the so-called dark money, i.e. funds of unknown origin. Which in turn are growing.
The most expensive election in history and the assault of the tech giants
The data relating to the commercials is also quite interesting. For the market analysis company AdImpactspending in this sector will reach 10.8 billion dollars: which would be equivalent to an increase of over 20% compared to the 2022 midterms. Add to all this the economic-financial sectors most involved in financing. “New campaign finance investigations reveal the exponential growth of a diverse group of financial interests, including AI, cryptocurrency and sports betting companies, who have collectively amassed hundreds of millions of dollars to influence this year’s congressional elections,” the news site reported Political.
In this context, the role of multimillionaires who, needless to say, inject money to protect their interests is growing. According to what was reported by Bloomberg Newsthe co-founder of Google Sergey Brin allegedly paid more than $60 million to California to try to oppose the wealth tax currently under discussion in the state. The same motivation would be behind the millions disbursed by the co-founder of Ripple, Chris Larsen. All this, while the Democratic governor of Illinois, JB Pritzkerdonated 10 million to a committee in support of his deputy, Juliana Strattonwho is currently running for a seat in the Senate.
In the ranking of multimillionaires who have entered the field, he comes in first place George Soroswhich has so far paid 102.6 million to various entities in the Dem area. Moreover, it is no mystery that the founder of Open Society is historically a financier of the Asinello and of progressive causes especially in matters of immigration and justice reform. His goal has always been to gain political influence and oppose the agenda of the Republican Party (first with George W. Bush and then with Trump).
The map of super donors between Silicon Valley and Super Pac
In second place, there is Elon Musk who, despite a quarrel with the current American president last year, made peace with him, remaining in the republican zone. The CEO of Tesla has so far paid a total of 84.4 million: from his point of view, it is first and foremost imperative to preserve the ties of SpaceX with the Pentagon and, at the same time, maintain a close relationship with JD Vance ahead of the 2028 Republican presidential primaries.
In third position we then find Jeff Yassfounder of Susquehanna International Group (quantitative trading and technology company), which paid out almost 82 million, of which 16 went to Maga Inc.: the Super Pac he supports Trump (unlike traditional political action committees – or Pacs – Super Pacs have no limits on the donations they can receive from individuals or organizations).
TO Maga Inc. 25 million also arrived from the co-founder of OpenAI, Greg Brockmanand his wife Anna, who, in view of the Midterms, have so far put in place 50 million dollars. Brockmanlike other figures linked to the high technology sector, aim to encourage the approval of laws that promote the artificial intelligence sector. Moreover, he is also very interested in AI Marc Andreessen: venture capitalist with bipartisan donations behind him, who has so far paid six million dollars to Maga Inc. Not surprisingly, really Andreessen he helped found Leading the Future: A Super Pac that is injecting campaign funding this year to protect the AI sector. Second Axiosin the first quarter of 2026, Leading the Future he has already diverted 13 million dollars to various committees interested in his cause.
The unknown for Catholics and the shock of high energy prices
But money isn’t everything. The second variable that will influence the Midterms this year concerns the Catholic vote, which in the United States is historically crucial. According to the New York TimesCatholics, in November, could prove to be the tipping point in the campaigns for the House and Senate in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona and southern Texas. In this respect, it is currently unclear what the impact of the recent criticisms of will be Trump to Leo XIV. On the one hand, at the beginning of May, the American president sent the Secretary of State, Marco Rubioin the Vatican to defuse tensions. On the other hand, it will be necessary to understand whether the friction between the White House and the US Conference of Catholic Bishops will influence the Catholic electorate: an electorate which – let us remember – Trump had clearly won the 2024 presidential elections. From this point of view, it is true that the American president’s controversies with Lion – a very popular pope in the United States – could damage the Republicans in November. But it is equally true that the woke wing of the Democratic Party continues to make Asinello unpopular with a significant part of the Catholic electorate.
A third variable that looms over the November vote concerns the war in Iran, or rather: its effects on the American economy. Second NBC Newssince the conflict began at the end of February, the price of petrol in the United States has increased by 50%: which potentially represents a very significant problem for the Republican Party, especially in light of the fact that, as has already been made clear since last autumn, this year’s Midterms will be played mainly on the delicate issue of high prices. Trump there is therefore an urgent need to end the Hormuz crisis as soon as possible and to lower the cost of energy. Furthermore, it is no mystery that petrol currently represents the main Achilles’ heel of the Republican Party. Last May 8, the polling average of Real Clear Politics dedicated to generic voting intentions for Congress, it gave the Democrats a lead of 5.6%: an advantage that is not insurmountable but which nevertheless represents a wake-up call for the Republican Party.
Democratic Feuds and District Warfare in Virginia
On the other hand, not even the Donkey can afford to sleep peacefully. At the beginning of May, the journalistic portal Axios reported considerable internal tensions due to the fact that the Democratic congressional campaign committee gave endorsements to candidates still involved in the primary process: a circumstance that significantly irritated several Dem deputies. Add to this the historic splits within the Asinello between a centrist current and a far left one. Last but not least, always Axios reported that the Republican chances of maintaining control of the House increased after the Supreme Court of Virginia at the beginning of May, he rejected a Democratic project aimed at redrawing the state’s electoral districts: a project on which Asinello had invested a lot, so much so that he spent over 62 million dollars to support it in a referendum held in April.
In short, despite the uncertainties and difficulties currently facing the Republican Party, the (very rich) Midterm game remains open.
