The president’s choices seem to be inspired by the Mar-A-Lago agreement: to devalue the dollar while maintaining its global centrality. Penalties and umbrella born serve to convince Brussels to collaborate
A certain vulgate only repeats that, on the issue of duties, Donald Trump It would be more or less tenth, without a precise design or strategy. In reality, the idea of an American president who would move on the basis of humoral instincts appears rather far -fetched. In fact, behind the tariff policies of the White House, a much more complex logic could be hidden than it seems at first sight.
To help us, it could be a study, published in November last year by Stephen Miran: economist very close to Trump and he put him at the head of the Council of Economic Advisers. ATTENTION: the paper of Miran It was not officially adopted by the current US administration. However, according to the well -known, it would be, at least in part, at the base of the president of the president on rates. The plan was significantly baptized “Mar-A-Lago agreement”. The reference is not only to the villa of Trump In Florida but also to the Plaza agreement: an agreement that the Reagan administration reached, in 1985, with France, Japan, the United Kingdom and Germany of the West, to implement a coordinated devaluation of the dollar. And right from the dollar we have to leave. If Trump He had really adopted Miran’s plan, his goal would be twofold.
Firstly, the president would intend to push (if not to force) the main creditors and commercial partners of the United States (EU and China in the lead) to implement a coordinated policy aimed at weakening the green ticket. Such a goal, in the eyes of Trumpit would be necessary to relaunch the US manufacturing sector in certain strategic (also electorally) areas, starting from Rust Belt. As part of this design, the idea would be to bring creditors to exchange American government bonds, held by their central banks, with bonds without coupon and from the very long deadline (up to 100 years).
It is evidently all to be demonstrated that the United States partners would willingly accept the request of the White House. And here then two coercion tools would come into play by Trump: not only the duties but also the threat of expelling the allies re -founded by the American military umbrella (a lever, the latter, which the president would basically use with the Europeans). Recall that, as soon as the day before yesterday, Trump He said he was available to stipulate agreements with those countries that want to avoid rates. But that’s not all. Yes, because, in addition to the devaluation, the Mar-A-Lago agreement would foresee, at the same time, the protection of the international dominance of the dollar. Again, the duties would play a role. On January 30th, Trump He said he would hit the Brics with 100%rates, if the latter had tried to create an alternative currency to the green ticket.
Of course, various economists point out that it is not easy at all to keep together with the weakening and dominance of the dollar. Also, as pointed out by Marketwatch“Forcing US partners to an agreement, which mainly benefits Washington and the American economy, could motivate them to accelerate the search for a dollar substitute”. However, what interests us is to understand the logic on which base Trump it could move. Moreover, it is not a mystery that, for him, the American manufacturing sector has a double value. The first is the socio -economic one and concerns the defense of the blue collars of Rust Belt. Not surprisingly, when the president announced the duties to the cars, the UAW, the metalworker union based in Michigan, gave its support for the provision: that same UAW which, in 2024, had conferred its endorsement a Kamala Harris. On the other hand, for Trumpthe manufacturing sector is closely connected to national security needs, especially as regards the geopolitical competition of Washington with Beijing. The American president does not tolerate that, especially in some strategic industrial sectors, the US can depend excessively on abroad. This is therefore, for example, the sense of American duties to the import of steel and aluminum, decreed two weeks ago.
It is then all to be demonstrated that Trump Rearm Europe, recently renamed Readin 2030, will appreciate. The American president is known, he wants to push European allies to contribute more to NATO expenses. However, the EU Commission plan provides that “Member States must purchase products suitable for established entities and based in the EU, EEA/EFTA and Ukraine states”. “For war consumption materials (non-complex products), the Member States will have to ensure that the components that represent 65% of the costs of the final product come from Union/Eaa-EFTA/Ukraine countries”, is also specified. Given the strategic attention he reserved for the US industry, the tenant of the White House will hardly see the “Buy European” clause, which has been advocated above all by France. After all, as we have seen, Trump It could try to force Europeans to work in concert to weaken the dollar, resorting to the threat to expel them from the American military umbrella. Economy and national security, for the White House, are, in short, two totally inseparable dossiers.
