Behind the historic meeting between the United States and China, the shadow of the Kremlin appears. The hypothesis of a new division of the world chessboard.
A climate of détente has begun between United States And China? Maybe yes, but it’s not certain. Donald Trump And Xi Jinping they met at Beijingwhere they had talks and then attended a state dinner. The general tone marked a calming of relations and, in particular, there was a (not obvious) convergence on the Iranian dossier. At the same time, Taiwan However, it remains a source of friction between the two rival powers.
“President Trump and I had an in-depth exchange of views on China-US relations and international and regional dynamics,” said the Chinese president during the state dinner, before adding: “We both believe that the relationship between China and the United States is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. We have to make it work and never ruin it.” «Both China and the United States would benefit from cooperation and lose from confrontation. Our two countries should be partners, not rivals,” he continued. «The Chinese and American people are both great people. Achieving the great rebirth of the Chinese nation and making America great again can go hand in hand,” he also said. “The world is a special world when the two of us are united and together,” Trump declared, inviting Xi to visit the United States on September 24th.
The energy axis on the Strait of Hormuz and the Taipei hub
Before the dinner, the two presidents had a conversation lasting over two hours. «The two parties have agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to ensure the free flow of energy,” an official said White Housethen adding: “President Xi also made clear China’s opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any attempt to impose a toll for its use, and expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China’s dependence on the Strait in the future.” «Both countries agreed that theIran will never be able to possess a nuclear weapon,” the American official continued. At the same time, according to a Chinese government statement, Xi pointed out to Trump that the Taiwan issue is the “most important” one and that, if not managed properly, it could trigger a “conflict”. “Taiwan independence and peace in the Taiwan Strait are fundamentally incompatible,” declared the Chinese president, who also hoped that the two countries could “overcome the Thucydides trap” (i.e. the inevitability of a war between powers competing for hegemony).
«Our policies in this regard have not changed. They have remained virtually unchanged over the course of several presidential administrations and continue to be so today”, he declared, again yesterday, Marco Rubioreferring to the Taiwanese dossier. «I believe that China’s preference is probably for Taiwan to join voluntarily. In an ideal world, what they would like is a vote or a referendum in Taiwan to approve the annexation,” he added. The US Secretary of State, in addition to expressing satisfaction with the convergence between Washington and Beijing on the Iranian crisis, then announced that Trump had asked Xi the question of Jimmy Lai.
The commercial agreements for Boeing and the protocols on Artificial Intelligence
Also yesterday, the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessentsaid the United States expects a large order of planes Boeing from Beijing, then adding that the two sides will also discuss purchases of energy and agricultural goods. “The two AI superpowers will begin to talk and we will establish a protocol on how to proceed, in order to ensure that non-state actors do not take over these models,” the head of the US Treasury Department said. Speaking on Fox News, Trump said that Beijing has committed to buying 200 Boeing 737 planes from the US, as well as greater quantities of soybeans, oil and natural gas. The American president added that Xi “will not provide military equipment” to Tehran.
The scenario of a tactical truce and the hypothesis of a Yalta 2.0
In short, rather than a détente, the one between the USA and China resembles a tactical truce. Both powers have their problems. The Trump administration fails to resolve the Iranian crisis, while the Supreme Court US has canceled some of the duties that the White House had imposed. The People’s Republic, for its part, is unable to revive domestic consumption and is starting to feel the weight of the Hormuz crisis. Without neglecting that, in the last 16 months, Beijing has lost influence onLatin America. Due to these weaknesses, the two rivals would therefore have opted for a truce, while not giving up geopolitical competition. The other possibility (which however does not necessarily contradict the first scenario) is that the USA, Russia and China are preparing for some sort of Yalta 2.0. Yesterday, Trump and Xi also talked about the Ukrainian crisis. It was also the end of April when the occupant of the White House spoke on the phone with Vladimir Putin. All this, while, again yesterday, the Kremlin announced that the Tsar will visit China “in the very short term”. In short, it cannot be ruled out that the three presidents are preparing a new division of the international scene. A plan that – who knows – may have started last year at the summit of Anchorage.
