The wait for Donald Trump to take office in the White House is creating far too many expectations for a change in US foreign policy, especially regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine, on which the fact is that if for Zelensky to regain the lost territories it is impossible, for Putin having sacrificed hundreds of thousands of men to control less than 20% of Ukrainian territory certainly cannot be considered a victory in his “Special Operation”. The after-effects of a generation of not entirely well-thought-out American progressive idealism have brought forth a multitude of problems internal and external to the USA that have today become acute, sometimes inflaming issues that have weakened and implicated the entire West. For the first time in history we witnessed military exercises with Italian assets in the South Pacific, to test a possible rapid redeployment of our Forces on the other side of the world as part of a NATO that has started to be fundamental again. There are therefore multiple fronts to look at and one of these is the Türkiye. President Erdoğan has continuously worked to concentrate power first as prime minister from 2003 to 2014 and as president since 2014. His popularity and that of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which he co-founded in 2001, has slowly but steadily lost ground to an increasingly united opposition. But at the same time the liberal Turkish bourgeoisie, reduced to a bare minimum, complains of excessive Islamization of the country and impoverishment. The danger is an increase in internal instability and terrorist attacks, with a possible fall from grace for the president and serious consequences for both the region and NATO.
Also in those parts, a worrying front is the Caucasus region. In Chechnya the leader is Ramzan Kadyrov and he has long been close to Moscow but also an opportunist, his power will probably be increasingly put to the test due to the fact that the ongoing war in Ukraine is draining more and more resources and will therefore see a decline in financial support in the region.
It’s difficult to make predictions, but the Caucasus is also becoming less stable. There Georgia it is full of divisions; furthermore, the question of drone attacks against Chechnya launched from Dagestan and Ingushetia remains. All sparks that can fuel a fire.
Further west, approaching Italy, there is the Serbian question. The Serbian lithium agreement signed with Brussels and the one with the International Monetary Fund indicate that Putin’s last ally in the Balkans and NATO’s last adversary could move closer to the West. The Balkans remain Europe’s almost ignored powder keg and any movement towards integration, whether with the Atlantic Alliance or with the EU, constitutes a counterweight to instability with the promise of developing, instead, greater economic activity for the region. Serbian moves towards Europe offered to the EU and NATO may lead Russia to have to increase its efforts to destabilize the country and the region, in which several problems remain, such as the electoral ones reported in Bulgaria. The Kremlin will no doubt put pressure on the Serbian government led by Aleksandardi Vučić to remain in its Russian sphere of influence, and Vučić appears to be facing a series of escalating protests in Belgrade. Let us remember that Serbia includes the borders of that region created at the table which is Kosovo. Hence the reason to keep the situation under control.
In Afghanistan the Taliban are doing exactly what was feared: seriously destroying women’s rights and freedoms. In 2024, we saw increased tensions with Iran over water sharing, with the Taliban completely ignoring an ancient treaty dating back to before the establishment of the Islamic Republic.
Multiple terrorist groups remain active in Afghanistan; in March 2024 the Tajiks sworn to ISIS-Khorasan carried out the Crocus massacre, in Russia. More recently, Pakistan has launched bombings in Afghanistan after continued attacks by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan group who use Afghan territory as a haven.
With Trump’s re-election, Europe will have to do more for Ukraine. However, the East-West divide in the EU is becoming more and more evident: Germany is in crisis and refuses to face the reality regarding Russia. With Scholz out, it is impossible to make predictions, however it is undeniable that Germany is pursuing a strategy of postponing the issue. The European Union, in which Berlin has enormous weight, must decide what to do about Russia, which will probably lead the eastern states as the Baltic countries and Poland to act unilaterally, while Ukraine will inevitably go from bad to worse and could be Trump’s first major failure, which will demonstrate that he is not omnipotent and cannot end the war as quickly as he claims.
Canada’s domestic and foreign policy will be interesting. With Prime Minister Trudeau, who perhaps more than any other represents the wave of progressive politics based on virtue and well-being that has dominated Western political discourse for the last decade, Canada has leaned heavily on progressive narratives on issues such as immigration, guns or the pandemic, but he faces elections in October and every opposition party has declared that they no longer have confidence in the current government. Trudeau leaves huge holes in the national defense and security apparatus. For example, 87% of all terrorist suspects stopped at US border crossings were from Canada. Internally the country is facing a serious real estate crisis and discussions on immigration are growing: there are 4.9 million expiring visas that are unlikely to be renewed. In a country of 41 million inhabitants this is a huge number.
Moving to Asia, the North Korea it is increasingly worth keeping an eye on. Sending troops to Ukraine will have potential consequences. The loss of North Korean soldiers is unlikely to spark domestic resistance, while joint naval exercises with Russia and China are likely to increase. This while South Korea, Pyongyang’s first line of defense, faces serious political turbulence and pushes Kim Jong-un to think about taking advantage of it.
Then there remain the Chinese issues such as Taiwan and the exploitation of the waters of the South Pacific, which worry the Philippines like Japan and Australia, but in fact commit the USA to inevitable continuous support.
Africa is undoubtedly the least stable continent on the planet. Under a military junta, the government of Evils arrested gold mining executives, with Australian and Canadian companies seeking arbitration over disputes with the government. The Russia Africa Corps is still supporting the country where the conflict between the Tuareg rebels (Azawad Liberation Front) and the Malian and Russian forces continues with the involvement of terrorist groups such as Jnim and the Islamic State of the Greater Sahara. These groups have increased their presence in the Sahel, while Turkey is now offering weapons and drones to the Malian government, which could culminate in another regional influence conflict between Turkey and Russia.
There Russiawhich lost its key naval and air bases in Syria with the fall of al-Assad, will have to strengthen its position in Libya precisely to support the Africa Corps, as it will need a stable air base to conduct supply missions for its interests in Mali, Central African Republic and Senegal, to name a few. In Libya General Haftar’s forces have been heavily equipped by Russian groups and Haftar has stated that he needs Russian air defenses to protect his troops from Turkish drones supplied to the UN and EU-recognized Government of Tripolitania.
