In Florida there is one of the keys that opens the Oval Office for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. In the last part of the electoral campaign, between failed attacks, propaganda and conspiracy theories, they will have to assert their reasons here. And to convince the third largest electorate in the United States (almost 14 million people), the “vote-moving” topic on November 5th will be abortion. The Republican Trump, in his third presidential election in a row, is “pro-life”, against the termination of pregnancies. The legacy of his tenure is the appointment of three of the Supreme Court justices who, in 2022, banned the federal right to abortion and allowed the 50 states to regulate it at their discretion. Democrat Harris, Joe Biden’s vice president, is “pro-choice” for legal access to this medical service. In this administration he manages the dossier on pregnancy termination to overcome the limitations resulting from the Supreme Court decision.
Florida is no longer the last bastion of abortion protection in the South. At the behest of Republican governor Ron DeSantis, from May 1, abortion after the sixth week of gestation is prohibited (in 2023, 40 percent of cases) for the seven million resident women, as well as for those of the nine neighboring countries where it is illegal . Compared to 2020, in 2024 more than five thousand women traveled to Florida (+11 percent); in 2023 there were 84 thousand abortions, and the “Sunshine State” recorded the second largest increase. This scenario, however, could be overturned by voters. In a month, abortion will be heavily “at the polls”, because in addition to the president, here they will have to vote on Amendment 4. Thus, if at least 60 percent voted yes, the right to terminate a pregnancy would be restored until 22nd-24th week, as before the Supreme Court overturned the “Roe v. Wade” ruling which, in 1973, introduced the protection of this medical practice into the US Constitution.
According to the latest poll by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research, 56 percent are in favor and 21 percent are against. In the State, “pro-life” and “pro-choice” therefore clash harshly. The first front is led by DeSantis, who has governed Florida for six years and is leading the anti-woke crusade. It approved the “Don’t Say Gay” law, which limits the teaching of topics related to race, sexual orientation and gender identity up to the third grade, and for which it is on a collision course with the economic giant Disney. A challenge on freedom of expression has reached court. On abortion, DeSantis lashed out at the judges of the state Supreme Court – five out of seven are his appointment – for not having prevented the vote on Amendment 4. The Florida Conference of Catholic Bishops, a voice not party of the Catholic bishops of the dioceses of the province of Miami: “Human life is sacred, but in our state it is repeatedly destroyed by abortion” he tells Panorama Tammy Fecci, member of the Conference. «Amendment 4 promotes the idea that children are disposable. We want to protect them together with women. This healthcare practice is a threat.” On the other front, among the “pro-choice” groups is the League of Women Voters of Florida, which deals with health care, reproductive rights and sexual education: “Every citizen deserves the freedom to make medical decisions without government intrusion. Amendment 4 is the way to mitigate the health crisis in the Southeast and put power back in the hands of the people” replies Blake Summerlin, the organization’s communications manager.
In the only TV debate on September 10th, Trump and Harris had a tough exchange on pregnancy termination: eight minutes of back-and-forth. They only dedicated more time to their respective economic recipes. During his mandate, “The Donald” supported the freedom of states to legislate independently on abortion, but did not rule out signing a federal ban up to the 20th week of pregnancy. In this election campaign he reiterates the prerogative of the states, yet he also reproaches the Republican governors for the severity of the limitations. A few weeks ago, however, he left behind his electoral precautions so as not to displease either the most intransigent part of his electorate, the white evangelical Protestants, or the most flexible part, the electorates, targets where he has less support. Also distancing himself from his “in pectore” deputy, JD Vance, who is against abortion even in cases of rape or incest. While criticizing the law signed by DeSantis (“a terrible mistake”), Trump will reject Amendment 4 in his Palm Beach seat.
Harris, for her part, will not be able to vote in favor of the measure but supports it. Abortion is at the top of the platform of the Democratic “ticket” formed with his designated deputy, Tim Walz, first governor (in Minnesota) to make it a “fundamental right.” At the party convention they gave space to the testimony of a girl who left Florida to have an abortion because the doctors did not assist her due to the restrictions. From this same state, Vice-Biden launched the “Fight for reproductive freedom” tour, which she is pushing to mobilize voters. He hopes that the successes of the sessions in which the protection of abortion was put to the vote in Republican strongholds will be repeated. Like her opponent, Harris changed her position for electoral purposes. In fact, in 2019 he proposed having the Department of Justice scrutinize every state law; today he promises to make abortion a federal right again. The “how” is unknown, and it will be a challenge to achieve it due to the probable composition of the Congress, with a Republican majority. “The termination of pregnancy split the Republicans and made Harris more competitive than Biden would have been in Florida” analyzes with Panorama Aubrey Jewett, professor in the School of Politics, Security and International Affairs at the University of Central Florida. «But pro-lifers support Trump and Republican strength has grown since the pandemic partly thanks to DeSantis, who opposed mandatory masks and vaccines. I don’t know if the position on abortion will allow the current vice president to win here.” “The Donald” will try to widen the lead – currently declining – attributed to him by the polls (Silver Bulletin: average +3.4 percent) and hinder Harris’ efforts to wrest from him, after eight years, one of the most populous, richest states , changing and divided America, theater of “culture wars”. Up for grabs are 30 electors who, in 64 years, only three future presidents have been able to do without. The tip of the balance will be abortion: essential for the duelists, whether out of conviction or convenience.
