Regardless of the current American president’s individual fate, the movement he started will continue to dominate the US political scene. Here’s why
The defeat of the Republicans in the last mid-term elections was, without a doubt, a serious political blow for Donald Trump. From next year, the American president will in fact have to govern with a hostile Congress. All this has led many commentators to predict the end of Trumpism.
Now, it is not currently known whether, however Trumpwhat is underway is a temporary crisis or whether, on the contrary, the descending phase of its political parable has begun. However, what we can already say with certainty is that, regardless of what the individual political destiny of the current occupant of the White House will be, Trumpism will not die. Paradoxical as such a statement may appear today, this is precisely the situation.
Trumpism does not suddenly arise like a mushroom. But it was the consequence of deep structural causes. When Trump he ran for the first time nominations Republican presidential election in 2015, the United States was still afflicted by the “Vietnam syndrome” triggered by the war in Iraq. They were also weakened by the effects of the Great Recession. In particular, an important issue was represented by the negative consequences that Clintonian-style globalization had produced, contributing to deindustrialising the Rust Belt and to make China more competitive on a commercial level.
It is no coincidence that these were precisely the themes addressed by Trump at the time. And in fact the current president has managed twice, in 2016 and 2024, to win the vote of the blue-collar workers of the Rust Belt: an electoral group that, up to and including 2012, had firmly supported the Democratic Party. And be careful: contrary to what is often stated, the electoral coalitions that led Trump twice in the White House they were not made up almost exclusively of whites: on the contrary, they turned out to be multiracial coalitions.
In 2016 and 2024, the current president managed to win significant margins of the African-American and, above all, Hispanic vote. Which allowed the Republican Party to win the presidential elections again, emerging from that perched fort where it had found itself relegated from 2008 to 2016.
The question of working class and ethnic minorities is still central. And in fact, the Republicans at Midterms they were defeated precisely because many of these voters, who in 2024 had supported the Grand Old Partythey turned their backs on him due to the high cost of fuel, caused by the unpopular war in Iran.
However, if Republicans want to win again in 2028, those voters remain decisive for them. And that doesn’t mean they aren’t recoverable either. Last Tuesday’s vote was, in fact, above all a protest vote against the high cost of living rather than a vote of support for the Democratic Party’s proposals.
It is therefore clear that, to remain competitive among these crucial voters, the Grand Old Party he will not be able to return to a “traditional republican doctrine”: a concept that is more mythological than real. Trumpism, from this aspect, will continue to prove to be the necessary face to intercept the decisive votes we have talked about.
Of course, you have to be careful. Trumpism is not a philosophical system. But, partly like Gaullism in France, it is a movement born of a charismatic leader. Well, charismatic leaders are usually able to contain tensions and even contradictions within themselves. Then, when they leave the scene, the various components that make up their movements tend to become more autonomous and, in some cases, even become independent from each other. It is therefore probable that, in the future, various Republican exponents will try to present themselves as heirs of specific traits of Trumpism.
JD Vance has already made it clear that he wants to represent the ancient wing of theAmerica First: the most isolationist and attentive to the issue of working class. Marco Rubiofor its part, has taken the name of that component of the Maga world that sees nationalism as the protection of Washington’s geopolitical and geostrategic interests: which does not exclude the use of military interventions abroad, despite its opposition to the costly processes of nation building in style Clinton And Bush. Ron DeSantis instead, it aims to be the spokesperson for the Maga wing closest to the needs of the business world.
The unknown, in view of 2028, lies in this: will a leader emerge capable of keeping Trumpism united? Or is this movement destined to fragment? This is where the real question mark arises.
That said, Trumpism, as a paradigm, will continue to dominate the US political landscape. And not just for Republicans. Some aspects of it were in fact de facto also absorbed by those Democrats who understood the need to recover the blue-collar vote of the Rust Belt.
It is no coincidence that a viable Democratic presidential candidate, like the governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapirohas abolished some green measures considered too far-reaching and misaligned with respect to working class of his state. Trumpism, in short, is alive. And, like it or not, it will continue to be so. For a long time to come.
