What the future relationship between will slowly begin to take shape Donald Trump And Recep Tayyip Erdogan. At a press conference on Monday, the American president in pectore spoke about the fall of Bashar al Assadclaiming that “Turkey will hold the key to Syria.” “Those people who entered are controlled by Türkiye,” he said, referring to the insurgents. “Erdogan he’s someone I got along very well with, but he has significant military strength. And his was not worn out by the war. He built a very strong and powerful army,” he continued. “No one knows what the final outcome will be in the region. Nobody knows who will rule in the end. I think it will be Turkey. Turkey is very intelligent, he is a very intelligent guy and he is very tough. Turkey made a hostile takeover without losing many lives,” he added.
In short, Trump is starting to recognize in fact Erdogan as the privileged interlocutor on the Syrian dossier. On the other hand, it is no mystery that the offensive that led to the fall of Assad was largely supported by Ankara and Doha. It is in this context that, in the midst of the US presidential transition, the sultan is trying to carve out a role as mediator in various international crises. First of all, he succeeded in promoting détente between Somalia and Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa. Furthermore, he also proposed himself as a mediator between Sudan and the Arab Emirates: two countries which, let us remember, were involved in the Abraham Accords. Last but not least, Erdogan wants to return to playing a crucial role in diplomatic mediation between Kiev and Moscow. In other words, the Turkish president aims to present himself as an unavoidable interlocutor for the new occupant of the White House. And the words spoken by Trump on Monday seem to confirm, at least for now, the success of this ambition.
However, be careful. It is certainly true that there could be various fronts of convergence between Erdogan and the American president in pectore. On the other hand, however, there are also areas of potential friction. In fact, let us remember that, together with Qatar, Turkey is the main sponsor of the Muslim Brotherhood. That Brotherhood with respect to which, during the first mandate, Trump he showed himself to be anything but tender. Without forgetting that the governments of Saudi Arabia and the Emirates strongly fear it. The challenge for Trump will therefore be to find a balance between the relationship with Erdogan and the revival of the Abraham Accords. Will the next American president be able to co-opt the sultan into these agreements? And, if so, at what price?
