Iran is trembling. And the reason is very simple. He fears the imminent inauguration of Donald Trump in the White House. It is no mystery that the American president in pectore intends to revive the policy of “maximum pressure” on Tehran. Its goal is not that of a regime change. If anything, he wants to put the ayatollahs with their backs against the wall to force them to radically renegotiate the controversial nuclear agreement which, signed by the Obama administration in 2015, Trump abandoned three years later. An agreement that Joe Biden then attempted to restore without success. That the nuclear agreement represents the center of Iranian concerns is demonstrated by a series of elements. First of all, Tuesday, the Times of Israel reported that Tehran has intensified air defense exercises near its nuclear sites. The Khomeinist regime fears military attacks from Israel, while, a few days ago, the American national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, had presented to Joe Biden plans for possible bombings against Iranian atomic facilities. Secondly, on January 13, Tehran will start talks in Geneva with France, Germany and the United Kingdom, dedicated to its nuclear program. All this, while, in December, the IAEA revealed that Iran was “dramatically accelerating” its uranium enrichment. So, what is happening? What happens Tehran is increasingly weaker. Israel recently beheaded two of its main proxies, namely Hezbollah and Hamas. Furthermore, the fall of Bashar al Assad in Syria, at the hands of insurgents supported by Türkiye, has made the ayatollahs even more vulnerable and isolated. It is no coincidence that, despite being forced to put on a good face in a bad situation, Tehran looks with suspicion at the protagonism of Ankara, which objectively emerged victorious from the Syrian crisis. In this sense, it is probable that Iran is accelerating to equip itself with the atomic weapon. On the other hand, the Khomeinist regime is preparing for Trump’s return. It cannot therefore be ruled out that he wants to use the talks on 13 January to buy time and, at the same time, try to create fractures between Washington and the European trio of France, Germany and the United Kingdom. A way in which the ayatollah regime could attempt to both dissuade any Israeli attacks and reduce the effects of Trump’s “maximum pressure”. A Trump who, for his part, does not have the slightest intention of ensuring that Tehran acquires a nuclear weapon. Such a scenario would in fact further reshape the balance of power in the Middle East. And it would complicate the revival of those Abraham Accords, hoped for by the American president in pectore. This is why the nuclear issue is the key to understanding relations between the West and Iran.
