It is the magic fluid that makes the markets work, the impersenable fuel of the bags. And when it is missing, the engine s’ceto and the titles go down. It is the trust that keeps the Castle of Finance and Savings standing. And with his pulls and gives up on duties and attacks on commercial partners, Donald Trump has scattered massive doses of uncertainty in the gear of Wall Street. From the maximum of February 19 to the minimums of March 13, the S&P index of the American stock exchange lost more than 10 percent, and then take a rough ups and donate dominated by volatility.
Thus US consumers tighten the belt, since they had filled the pockets of actions that are now worth less (According to the JP Morgan bank in the week before February 5 they had bought 12 billion dollars, a historical record). Among the favorites there were naturally Elon Musk’s Tesla, who since the beginning of the year has lost about 40 percent of its value, and Nvidia, down 20 percent. Not only that. In this climate they suddenly become more gloomy, companies began to interrupt investments and hires. Consequently, production and employment tend to decrease. And the economy risks entering a vicious circle.
“Jp Morgan has revised up the chances of an economic contraction, bringing them from 30 percent to the beginning of the year to 40 percent, while Goldman Sachs has increased them from 15 to 20” Remember Edoardo Proverbio, Head of Investment Area of the Swiss Decalia company. “These forecasts have prompted the operators to review the growth estimates of US GDP for 2025 and 2026, in addition to the expectations on corporate profits, causing a bearish pressure on the shareholders. A similar new scenario reflects not only the protectionist policies of the new American administration, but also the expected cuts in public and federal spending ».
Maybe the recession will not be there (Proverb he believes it little, he thinks that a drastic deterioration of the global economy is not imminent), perhaps that of the American square is only a healthy correction after months of rise. But in doubt, international investors are moving away from Wall Street in search of safer ports. And the eyes are focused on Europe, where the sun of the second half seems to rise: Germany led by Friedrich Merz, finally less rigid on public debt, is about to launch a large investment plan and this could restart the train of European economies.
Encouraged news also arrive from Asia: The Chinese government has announced an important plan for the relaunch of consumption in the country, increasing the internal demand also through an increase in wages. Meanwhile, in the first two months of the year retail sales increased by 4 percent and the industrial production of 5.9, above the expectations of analysts.
The bond refuge
So what should an Italian saver do? Meanwhile, have a well -balanced wallet, let’s say with 60 percent of government bonds and bonds, and in any case with a riskyness in line with your preferences. “In a context of high uncertainty, more political, than economic, it becomes essential to adopt a rather prudent approach, maintaining a well -balanced and diversified portfolio both in terms of asset class and for sectors, geographical areas and investment styles” suggests Proverb. “The best way to overcome the storm of the duties” adds Nicolò Bragazza, associate portfolio manager of Morningstar Investment Management, “is to have a long -term approach in which short -term fluctuations are managed through a well -diversified portfolio between different asset classes and which takes into consideration the assessment of assets, avoiding or subjecting the investments that have a relationship between risk and not very attractive performance”.
In the bond field Alessandro Parravicinilong -experienced manager and author of the book Jungle Guide, the most difficult way to make easy money (Mondadori) recommends focusing on government government bonds and high quality euro -quality corporate bonds that offer interesting returns: “A euro aggregate Etf includes both and is efficient in terms of costs”.
Confirms Bragazza di Morningstar: «Currently, government bonds offer historically high returns, even outside the euro area, where the ECB has had a much more aggressive approach on the cutting of the rates than the United States and the United Kingdom. These tools offer a good risk and performance profile and can provide portfolio diversification in case of significant slowdown in economic activity ». Still Proverb of Decalia stresses that “the Italian ten -year has returned to offering a performance of 3.9 percent, while the European Union titles (AAA rating for Fitch and Moody’s, AA+ for S&P) at ten years of age make 3.3 percent, very interesting levels in a context of rates cut and that we will hardly find in a few months or year. Other government emissions in euros include the Polish tenth anniversary (A-) which makes about 3.8 percent, the Chilean one (A-) around 4 and the Mexican one (BBB rating) over 5 ».
What to choose at the Supermarket of Actions
Abandoning the shelf of American titles, what actions should an investor orient himself? «The tax stimuli plan in Germany supports the recovery of the euro shareholder, which is still at attractive prices. While China should benefit from the plan to support the internal demand “ Parravicini says. In Europe, according to experts, it is essential to reduce exposure to the sectors most affected by duties (for example the car, luxury, industrialists, steel) and focusing on securities less sensitive to international trade, such as those related to domestic services (utilities and telecommunications). Fensions such as defense, renewable energy and health care tend to be less influenced by commercial tensions. “The most defensive fields, such as basic necessities and health consumption assets, are quite interesting” says Bragazza “especially if related to the lower risk of their fundamentals compared to more cyclical and volatile sectors such as technological and financial ones”.
Proverb of Decalia is not entirely in agreement: «The technological sector, the most penalized in the last sessions, has historically significant evaluations. The pharmaceutical and financial sector also offer perspectives to be evaluated: the first, by its defensive nature, benefits from demographic growth and the aging of the population, guaranteeing a constant flow of revenues. Among the most promising companies we highlight Astrazeneca, Roche and Essilorluxottica ». The second, the financial one, “today more solid than in the past, benefits from interest rates no longer excessively low. European banks, well capitalized, are evaluating several consolidation opportunities, while American ones maintain a dominant position globally. Payment systems (Visa, Mastercard), the data providers (S&P Global, Moody’s), the asset managers (Blackrock) represent segments with strong growth prospects ».
The Swiss bank UBS has created a report entitled Six Ways to Invest in Europe (Six ways of investing in Europe) in which it is claimed that “the main beneficiaries of an economic recovery in Europe would be cyclical companies with a high exposure to the European final markets”. For example, “the manufacturer of luxury goods Richemont and the airline Ryanair have reported solid trends in the demand by consumers of the old contaciente. We believe that these companies, including others such as Accor, are in pole position to run forward once the recovery of Europe will materialize ». For UBS analysts other actions to keep an eye on are Lindt & Sprüngli, Accor, the Swiss and Ferrari Swiss Chemical Group.
Experts asked by Panorama suggest to also look at utilities such as Edf, E.on, Enel, not very sensitive to economic cycles; To the companies Nestlè, Unilever, SAP, finally, webuild, Essilorluxottica, Diasorin and of course to the giants of military productions such as the French Thales, the German Rheinmetall, the English Bae Systems and the Italian Leonardo.
On the bag with the helmet
But on defense securities, dragged upwards by the expectations of increased military spending, a separate discussion must be made. The Etoro trading platform has conducted an interesting analysis by comparing the trend of the magnificent 7, i.e. the main US technological companies (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla), with the seven leading companies of the defense sector in Europe: BAE, Dassault Aviation, Leonardo, Rheinmetall, Rolls-Royce, Safran and Thales. The result is impressive: in a year the magnificent 7 climbed by 22 percent, while the seven star of European defense have scored a performance of 84 percent! Within three years, the former have risen by 102 percent, the latter of 354. “All the main companies of the European defense are found in HyperPomparato territory” says Gabriel Debach, Etoro’s market analyst. «This does not necessarily mean that the trend is destined to reversing, but it certainly makes the sector more vulnerable to any disappointments or delays in spending programs. Investors should keep an eye on if these plans and commitments will materialize in concrete funding and expenses in the coming months ».
On Leonardo, in particular, Debach is very positive: “The alliance already consolidated with Rheinmetall and the very recent agreement with the Turkish group Baykar, leader in military drones, confirm Leonardo as an increasingly integrated player in current geopolitical scenarios. The company is then in advanced negotiations also for a new joint venture in the aerostructure sector, a potential new catalyst for the title, with a look always on the defense division of Iveco ».
How long will turbulence last?
According to Parravicini «it is difficult to predict it; The markets will remain volatile until the outcome of the war of Trump’s duties is clear. Once established what and how much it will be taxed, the wallets will fix themselves and we can look forward. At least we have to wait for April, with the announcement of the duties for Europe ». Bragazza di Morningstar agrees: «It is very dangerous to make predictions that inevitably risk turning inaccurate. Furthermore, it is clear that some sources of instability, such as American commercial policy, are not easily predictable as they are based on factors that exist from market logic and, at the same time, companies can often adapt quickly to it ».
But does it still make sense to invest in the USA?
If Wall Street will not start in a catastrophic fall, investing in American actions makes sense. The Economic Team of Payden & Rygel, an American management company based in Los Angeles, claims that “despite the pessimism of the press, we believe that the US economy still has space to grow: the report on the occupation of February shows how US consumers are recording an increase in real income, with an annual increase in the aggregate income aggregated equal to 5 percent, well beyond the long -term average of 3.6 per cent and per cent. above the inflation rate ». Even the HSBC bank remains optimistic in particular on the US technological assessments, convinced that “the submarine of the main technological companies has led to the most interesting price-users. The bank believes that the medium-long term perspectives for actions could become more constructive if the tariff situation stabilized and further tax and deregulation measures were introduced in the United States “.
In short, we cross our fingers. The corrections on the stock exchange, with drops between 10 and 20 percent compared to the previous maximums are not uncommon and do not necessarily indicate an imminent recession, so much so that from 1990 onwards there were 12 drops of the S&P 500 index without following any recession. Before betting against the United States, it would therefore be necessary to keep in mind the history of the stock market and monitor the macroeconomic fundamentals, not only the newspaper titles.
