The accusation of having “abandoned Europe” to the American president does not take into account his goal in the real international competition. That is, focusing on the countries of the southern hemisphere to counter the expansion of superpower – China – which takes advantage of all crises.
Often, many European leaders and media remain scandalized by the documents and declarations of Donald Trump. And then speaking narratives are generated that paint the current American president as an “imperialist”, an “autocrates”, an “isolationist” and so on. In reality, these are misunderstandings that, more or less in bad faith, do not grasp the perspective from which the tycoon tends to move in international politics.
In the old continent too frequently it is not clear (or pretends not to understand) how Trump’s attention is not concentrated on Europe but on “Global South”the part of the world where vast resources are currently concentrated and with greater growth prospects by population. Trump has in fact understood that, during the four years of the Biden administration, the United States have significantly lost influence on this vast area, complex and articulated: all with a clear advantage of China.
One of the main turning points occurred in August 2021, When the former Democratic President implemented the disastrous retreat of American troops from Afghanistan. The sudden collapse of Kabul in the hands of the Taliban and the dramatic images of the desperate clinging to the departure planes have inflicted a very hard blow to Washington’s international credibility. And this happened in two senses. First: the American deterrence ability has weakened, so much so that, a few months after the Afghan crisis, China has increased military pressure on Taiwan and Russia has intensified the pileing of troops on the border with Ukraine. Second: the images of those departing planes shocked large parts of the global South, which gradually questioned US reliability.
Some might object, remembering how the withdrawal from the tormented Asian country It returned to an agreement that had been Trump himself who concluded with the Taliban, in February 2020. In reality, the situation is more complex. Entering in office on January 20, 2021, Joe Biden was not bound to that understanding: he wanted, he could have cracked it or renegotiate it.
And in fact it was he himself who made the final decision in favor of the withdrawal: decision that announced on April 14, 2021. Among other things, the then President changed the terms of the agreement signed by Trump: the original agreement provided that the withdrawal should be completed by May 2021. Biden instead moved the Deadline to 11 September of that year. This is to say that there was no automatism. And that in any case the operational management of the withdrawal falls under the responsibility of its administration.
Well, after the Afghan disaster, the American influence on the global south has become increasingly shaky. And China took advantage of it. In June 2022, Reuters reported that, from the entrance of Biden, Beijing had “expanded the gap with the United States in commercial terms in vast areas of Latin America”. It was also March 2023, when the dragon successfully mediated a diplomatic relaxation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, thus gaining land in the Middle East at the expense of Washington.
In recent years, America has also encountered difficulties in Africa: Just think that, in September 2024, Biden was forced to collect American soldiers from Niger. Also in 2024, the block of Brics – the not aligned states – has expanded to other countries, including the Arab Emirates, Egypt and Iran. All this, without neglecting the peace conference held in Switzerland last year on the Ukrainian crisis. The final document, in which the territorial integrity of Ukraine was supported, was not signed by various countries belonging to the global South, starting from India and Saudi Arabia.
Trump therefore took note of the fact that the United States found themselves with their backs to the wall. And he is trying to reverse the trend. Marco Rubio made the first trip from Secretary of State to Latin America: a journey that the person concerned led to Antichinian function, managing to convince Panama not to renew his adhesion to the Belt and Road Initiative.
On the other hand, the director of the National Whaller, Tulsi Gabbard, recently went to India, here meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi: That ways that had already been received in the White House in February. With all this, Trump, in the peace process on Ukraine, has recognized a central role to Saudi Arabia, which has so far hosted a large part of the talks played by the Americans with Russians and Kiev authorities. Without neglecting that the current American president seems to be characterized by an interest in the African continent. In February he ordered bombings against ISIS in Somalia, while the Africom leaders had meetings in Libya with the authorities of Tripoli and Benghazi.
All this, without neglecting that one of the main objectives of Trump is to separate as much as possible from Beijing: The president knows that Vladimir Putin fears the suffocating embrace with Xi Jinping. In exchange for a Russian softening on the Ukrainian crisis, it has therefore proposed to the Tsar a perspective of economic agreements that can significantly reduce its dependence on China. Among other things, the goal of separating the two superpowers is also functional to further strengthen Washington’s relationships with Nuova Delhi: India in fact historically enjoys good relations with Moscow in the defense sector in Antichinian function.
In short, if you want to understand the American president, you cannot ignore what is its main purpose: Contend to China the influence on the global south. Trump’s acts and declarations would therefore be mainly read with the lenses of the countries belonging to the former third world. This obviously does not mean that for the White House the road is downhill or that Beijing will stop to look at it. However, it means to understand that, for Trump, it is urgent to get out of the isolation in which Biden had made Washington plunged regarding emerging countries.
The point then is not that, as the new president “abandoned” Europe is supported. If anything, the old continent is who, in front of a republican exponent in the White House, is turning his back on the United States. And this is happening above all because of the myopia of France and Germany. Instead of opening negotiations on commercial dossiers and aligning with America in its severe approach to Beijing, they are in fact pushing Brussels to increase tensions with Washington. On the other hand, in the last two years of the Biden Administration, both Paris and Berlin have strengthened their relations with the People’s Republic of China. The problem is that, to chase the Franco-German ambitions, the European Union risks condemning itself to a further geopolitical irrelevance: proof of its total absence of weight in the diplomatic process on Ukraine.
However, attention: Trump’s growing interest in global south can represent good news for Italy. The moment, as it seems, the White House should try to recover influence in Africa, Rome could play on the shore with Washington in the framework of the Mattei Piano, the development program that our country is implementing. Also in this perspective, in the event that the American president wanted to extend the Abraham agreements to the Maghreb, Giorgia Meloni could play a mediation role, given the solid ties that his government has fabriced as much with Tunis as with Tripoli. The secret, at the end of the accounts, lies in understanding the logic that moves the American president and behave accordingly, to best protect our national interest. That’s why it is not the path traced by Paris and Berlin the one to follow.
