Marines arriving and operational plans ready: the United States evaluates the attack on Kharg island to hit the oil heart of Iran
The timid signs of diplomatic détente between the US and Iran do not move by a mile the expected deployment of Marines that the Pentagon is carrying out for a possible intervention on the strategic island of Kharg. If there is a landing, the paratroopers and special forces units who are preparing for operations will have the opportunity to act in the ways for which they have been practicing for some time, and which were born after the experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan.
From the actions of low radar observability bombers (Stand-in mode), to rapidly moving artillery operations, called «shoot and scoot», until Multi-Domain Operations (MDO), the strategic concept involves the simultaneous coordination of operations across the five domains of land, sea, air, cyber, intelligence and space. And it certainly won’t help peace what the government has decided Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani after the raid attributed to the USA which killed 15 fighters of the Popular Mobilization Forces, or which will allow the pro-Iranian militias to act.
Possible war scenarios
We know that a possible conquest of Kharg by the USA would lead to a serious impoverishment of Iranbut it would drag the Tycoon administration into having to justify to the American public an increasing number of losses, estimated at at least a hundred. Moreover, Kharg is located just 25 km from the mainland, a distance that does not protect against missile attacks from Iran. It is true that last week several attacks had already destroyed some bunkers placed to defend the island, while it is confirmed that the USS Tripoli ship, escorted by a pair of Burke class destroyers, has left the Pacific and is sailing towards the Gulf. On board, in fact, the Thirty-first Marine unit (31st Meu). To conquer Kharg, it will therefore be essential to shoot from long distances and with precision, that is, to use cruise missiles, embarked Himars and drones, instead of ship guns.
It could also be the battle in which the orbiting munitions by the infantry, as well as Madis-type anti-drone systems. That is, everything they would use in a scenario like the Pacific one in the event of a conflict in defense of Taiwan against China. Another 2,000 Marines, those of the 11th MEU, are arriving from San Diego with the Wasp-class ship (also a helicopter carrier) USS Boxer, a unit capable of being a base for even medium-range operations. And if glimmers of diplomacy have been announced in recent days, it is equally true that these initiatives may have the aim of allowing the forces to align themselves in the best possible way.
Diplomatic relations in the Middle East
One of the possibilities to be implemented for protect troops and naval convoyswould be to ask Oman for permission to occupy the Musandam peninsula, so if the order arrives to conquer the island, which represents the main Iranian oil terminal, it is likely that the first land of the Islamic Republic to be attacked will be the islands of Qeshm and Hengam, located along the Strait of Hormuz, already hit in recent days and right in front of the peninsula which represents the extreme strip of land closing the Strait. However, Musandam borders Dubai, and is only 90 kilometers from popular tourist locations, such as Al Hamra and Ras Al Khaimah, so it would itself become a target of the Iranians.
But the Omani position is not entirely pro-US: Last week Muscat’s foreign minister said that the United States had “lost control of its foreign policy”, accusing Israel of having convinced Washington to attack and calling the conflict a “serious error of judgement”. The success of any operation will certainly depend on how safe the southern shore of the Strait can remain, and this on how ready the anti-aircraft defenses of Bubai and Oman will be, and on the possibility of arming new strategic locations because they are in sight of the oil tanker routes, such as the Emirati town of Harf Ghabi.
