The Risiko comes alive. The go -ahead Consob to the publication of the Unicredit OPS document on Banco Bpm opens the dances in the Hall of Honor of Piazza Affari. The operation will start on April 28 to end on 23 June and, in any case it ends is destined to redesign the national banking scene, with implications also for the future of Credit Agricola and Amundi. It may also be that the operation never reaches the finish line as Unicredit reiterated that, as a consequence of Banco Bpm Opa, the value of the operation has risen to 13.9 billion and therefore reserves the right to retire. In any case, the goal is to reach 66.7% of the capital. The minimum threshold stops at 50% plus an action.
Unicredit’s offer on Banco Bpm is not only a matter of numbers, but takes on strategic value. Minister Giorgetti and the entire government that would have preferred a different script. That is to say the merger between BPM and MPS to travel more quickly on Mediobanca and Generali. Andrea Orcel’s tense leg intervention ruined the project
. With the acquisition of Banco Bpm, the Milanese bank will significantly expand its network, especially in northern Italy, where the distribution of the branches is already dominant. Over a thousand branches will allow the group to consolidate their market share both in terms of credits and deposits. And not only that: the operation would allow you to bring 4 million Banco BPM customers under the Unicredit wing, making them available a range of advanced services and products, and taking advantage of the strength of an international franchise
If on the one hand the Unicredit Oops on Banco BPM is destined to change the balance of the Italian market, on the other there is no lack of movements on the front of shareholdings. In fact, Credit Agricola, in fact, obtained the green light from the European Central Bank to increase its participation in the BPM counter up to 19.9%, a move that the French bank does not hesitate to define as a “strategic” and long -term investment. But also an ace to play in the match with Orcel exchanging his BPM actions with the protection of the distribution contract that binds Amundi, his company management company, with Unicredit.
According to sources Bloomberg, Andrea Orcel is exploring alternatives in view of the expiry of the agreement in 2027. There is also another element to be examined: if Credit Agricola aderisse at OPS would become the main industrial partner of Piazza Aulenti with a participation around 4%. In any case, Crédit Agricola will determine the fate of the Unicredit offer. If the UniCredit CEO, Andrea Orcel, will be able to convince the French, the outcome of the OPS will follow a favorable direction. On the contrary, the climb will become difficult. By assuming the full adhesion of the OPS, by all shareholders excluded only Crédit Agricole, Unicredit could find yourself dividing BPM control with a share of 80%, you and 20% to the French. Get ready, the game has just started!
