Andrea Orcel moves with prudence in the mined field of bank risiko considering thehostility of governments: the Italian one regarding theOPS who launched on Banco BPM and the German one for the climb over comrazbank. The results of the First quarter of Unicredit – the best in its history as the CEO says satisfied – become the trampoline to relaunch the inorganic growth strategy. But without the frenzy of those who are in a hurry to close. “Operations only if improved”repeats Orcel like a mantra. Translated: No operations just to grow. If they do not create value, remain in the drawer.
The eye is focused on Banco BPMwhere thePublic exchange offer It is still hanging by a thread – the thin one of the Conditions posed by the Italian government under the umbrella of the Golden Power. That is maintenance of the btp portfolio, No cut to funding in Italy, Russia, investments: these are i stakes put by Palazzo Chigi Before saying yes. Unicreditaware of the political weight of the dossier, now looking for a direct comparison with the authorities For file the corners. Meanwhile Orcel recalculate the accounts: Banco Bpm has one Credit coverage lower than Unicredit standardsneed another 800 million. Then there is the knot Soulwho has burnt value. Yet, from the headquarters of Piazza Gae Aulentithe operation It is not archived. Alone pause. For now. Only the promise that within the first half of next year Moscow operations will be closed.
On the German front, however, things seem more linear. Unicredit already has a 10% of Commerzbank in handbought full price In a transparent auction that also featured the Government of Berlin. The goal is go up to 30%but without forcing. “We have almost all authorizations, we can wait until 2027,” explained Orcel. No opa hostile on the horizonbut one progressive position construction to count – and, if possible, command.
But in the Risiko there is also a third name, General. Unicredit has 6.5% of the Trieste lion in portfolioformally it’s just a financial investment. The list of Francesco Gaetano Caltagironefor some time in contrast with the current governance. A recent meeting a Milan Between the CEO and the entrepreneur-editor he rekindled the speculations on a possible active intervention of the bank. But Orcel brakes: “It’s just an investment”. But maybe it’s just a way to keep the papers covered again.
The accounts are clear: growth revenues of 2.8% to 6.5 billiontowed by Commissions (+8.2%) which largely compensate for the Reduction of the margin of interest in decline (-2.9%). Net profit flies to 2.8 billion (+8.3%) with a Return to the capital of 22%among the Best in Europe. The dividing by action grows by 46.3%The Coefficient of patrimonial solidity is consolidated at 16.1%. The bank Raise the estimates for 2025: net profit above 9.3 billionAnd Punta at 10 billion in 2027.
The title runsbut on the stock exchange it is feared that the Risiko land – between politics, authorizations and market conditions – is more slippery than expected. The question is always the same: How sustainable is this race? AND how long the honeymoon will last between Orcel and the market If one of the games in the game should go wrong? The Roman banker play in advance. “With the first quarter 2025 the acceleration phase begins“He told analysts. More efficiency, more revenuesand – if the conditions allow it – some targeted acquisition. But always with the compass aimed at a principle: Never sacrifice the solidity on the altar of expansion.
