The US President announced progress in negotiations and new humanitarian aid to the strip, speaking of a possible imminent respite
The President of the United States, Donald Trumptold journalists to consider it possible to reach a ceased in the Gaza Strip already within the following week. “I think we are almost there. I just had talks with some of the protagonists involved. The situation in Gaza is dramatic and we think that next week we could get to an agreement to stop hostilities, “he said. On the sidelines of the American decision to allocate $ 30 million to Gaza Humanitarian Foundation – engaged in the distribution of food aid inside the Striscia – Trump commented: “Gaza pays in terrible conditions … We are sending great sums of money and substantial quantities of food because it is our duty to do it”. The president then added: «Formally we are not part of the conflict, but we are involved because the population dies. I observe the masses of people without everything: without food, with nothing ». In the previous days, sources close to Hamas had reported “significant progress” in negotiations for a respite, fueling hopes of an imminent turning point. Trump’s statements were made a short distance from his intervention at the top Born to the AIA, during which he claimed relevant results regarding the Gaza crisis. According to reports, Trump would also argue that the attack on Iran would facilitate the release of the hostages detained in the strip, the objective that the special US envoy, Steve Witkoff, He defined “very close” to the president.
Hamas remains an active force, although strongly reduced
After more than twenty months of conflict with the Israeli army in the Strip of Gaza, Hamas It remains an active force, although strongly reduced. The Islamist group, made up of fighters for the most popular and not very trained, has lost almost all of his military leadership and has now a minimum reserve of heavy armaments, a factor that could facilitate the disarmament process invoked by the international community. “Only a few dozen high -level officers are still operational,” reveals a French diplomatic source in Le Figaro. The Hamas files are made up of very recent recruits. Today, the average age of an officer of the group is just 19 years old. A resident of Gaza, well informed of the organization’s internal dynamics, confirms: “Most of the military leaders and regional commanders have been eliminated”. The hardest blow came in mid -May with the killing of Mohammed Sinwarbrother of Yahyaarchitect of the attack of 7 October 2023, which cost over 1,100 Israeli civil victims. In that operation they were also killed Mohammed Shabanacommander of the Rafah BrigadeAnd Mahdi Kawarahead of the Khan Youunis South Battalion.
The internal tensions are no different. Difficult relationships between Izz al-Din al-Haddadappointed successor of the leadership, and the clan Sinwar promise to leave their mark. Haddad He often criticized the military strategy against Israel, verbally attacked Yahya Sinwar, who in the past had even pointed a gun in his head, and also collided with Mohammed Sinwar. For security reasons, Hamas could avoid officially announceing the new leader. Only three or four high -ranking commanders survive, including Raed Saad to Rafah. Some battalion garments also resist, such as Haytham Al-Hajri of the refugee camp of Shati, Hussein Fayyad of the Beit Hanoun brigade, e Abu Obeyda, The spokesperson for the brigades Ezzeddine al-Qaassam. From a numerical point of view, however, the movement still retains a wide base. In the internal elections of 2021 in Gaza, 105,000 voters were recorded, of which 25,000-30,000 soldiers and 10,000 women. A not negligible weight in an area of 2.5 million inhabitants. In September 2024, Yahya Sinwar He decided to withdraw the historical paintings to preserve resources, deploying new levers together with 4,000-5,000 militiamen recruited in the months preceding October 7th. In Doha, the guide of the movement passed to a committee made up of Khalil al-Hayya, Bassam Naim, Mohammed, Ismail Darwich, Khaled Meshaal And Nizar Awadallahflanked by veterans like Moussa Abu Marzouk And Ghazi Hamad. But the divisions are profound, both between the internal and external paintings, and within the group itself.
“Khaled Meshaal He put himself on the sidelines, “says a Palestinian source. «He is more inclined to compromise, he had even accepted the idea of delivering the weapons or exile 5,000 fighters. But he has no more weight: neither Gaza nor Iran support him, only Turkey supports him ». The communication problems between Gaza and the Committee of Doha However, they recently attenuated: “They found an alternative channel on the phone.” The logistical difficulties are aggravated by a growing financial crisis. Hamas He can no longer pay regular salaries to officials and militiamen regularly. According to what reported by the Saudi newspaper ASHARQ AL-AWSATan attempt to distribute wages at The Shifa Hospital It ended with an Israeli attack. Since then, Hamas has suspended these meetings. With the banking system out of use, payments have also become a company. To all this are added the pressure of the civilian population, exhausted by bombing and increasingly critical of the Islamist movement. “We cannot reject any proposal,” admits a foreign diplomat. “It is necessary to keep Trump involved in negotiations, it is the most relevant aspect.”
Last spring, American emissaries met exponents of Hamas On at least two secret occasions, with the consent of Israel. These contacts, unthinkable after October 7, led to the liberation of Edan AlexanderIsraeli-American citizen, on May 12th. Hamas, however, accuses the United States of having betrayed the commitments: promised humanitarian aid did not arrive in Gaza and the negotiations with Israel have not taken off. Yet, despite the progressive weakening, the group remains engaged in talks. Not only Washington keeps contact with Hamas. The French secret services would have met a high political manager of the movement in what would be the sixth meeting after the start of the war. Internal sources of Hamas argue that before the attack on 7 October there were interviews in Gaza. But officially, Paris denies any dialogue, consistent with the line adopted after the 2003 attacks, when the France interrupted any relationship with Hamas. However, the disarmament of the movement appears more realistic today. «Hamas almost only has light weapons. His rockets have drastically decreased, “he says to Le Figaro A French diplomat.
Hamas could renounce the civil administration of the Striscia but stay in the strip
The scenario hoped for by Israel, by the Arab countries and the West provides for the return of heavy weapons by the group, under the supervision of‘Palestinian authority and international observers, as reported by the Washington Institute. But according to a Palestinian analyst, “talking about disarmament is unrealistic. Hamas He has lost over 90% of his missile arsenal and now even resorts to the residual residual of unexploded Israeli rockets ». Yahya Sinwarin a message from November 2023, claimed that Hamas He could have fought for another year. That time, today, has expired. The elimination of the main military leaders also made the option of their expulsion impractical, which would have recalled that of theOlp In 1982 by Beirut. Negotiations, initially focused on 5,000 militiani, they had dropped to 2,000, but Mohammed Sinwar He had always opposed exile. Only after his death, some leaders in Doha would open to this possibility, limited to operational commanders. Second Ehud YaariHamas is ready to give up the civil administration of the Striscia, however avoiding the theme of disarmament, in an attempt to replicate the model Hezbollah: staying dominant armed force and leave others the management of governance. A solution rejected by the international community, which aims to prevent Hamas to reconstruct its power on a weak administration. But precisely this fragility could guarantee the Islamist movement a future control in the area, even if very reduced.
