Israel, with the support of the other powers aligned against the Iranian threat (implemented through the Houthi militias of Yemen), prepares new bases in Eritrea and Somaliland, full gulf of Aden. Thus changes the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa.
The Houthi remain a dangerous ally from Iran, capable of hitting Israel and all the ships that sail towards Suez through the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Bab El Mandeb. Since the rebels of Yemen have declared war on Tel Aviv and the West, the Red Sea has become a more open front than ever. But here the geopolitical balances between the United States and China are played above all. In the narrow passage, where Africa and Asia almost touch each other, they opened bases as well as Beijing and Wahington, Japan, the United Kingdom, Italy and of course the historic French colonizers.
This fundamental arm of the sea that connects the Indian ocean to the Mediterranean is decisive for the economies of many states starting with Egypt. The proceeds of the passage of ships from the Suez canal weigh in fact 2.5 percent of the Cairo GDP, but affects most of the Mediterranean Maritime Economy. The numbers say that 12 percent of world trade transits through Suez, which represents 30 percent of the volume of international maritime transport containers. In 2022 the ships in transit were 23,583 units, with +15 percent compared to 2021 and even +42 percent compared to 2013.
A significant fact of the importance of this passage comes from the hourly value of the exchanges which amounts to about 400 million dollars, equal to 9.6 billion dollars per day. From here 10 percent of the refined oil products of the Arabic Peninsula, 8 percent of the liquefied gas of the North Mozambique and 5 percent of African crude oil oil.
The Egyptian channel also sees the passage of 14.6 percent of the world’s importing of cereal products and 14.5 percent of the world -year -old import of agricultural fertilizers, all coming from Asia. This is the stakes.
Since the end of 2023, however, the continuous attacks of the Houthi in the Naviglio both military Siacommerciale in the waters of the Red Sea have caused the trafficking of the region to collapse. Here in the first five months of 2024 the authority of the Suez canal recorded a drop of 49 percent in naval transits compared to the same period of the previous year, with a decrease in revenue in the tax year 2023/2024 of 2.5 billion dollars. A situation that is also penalizing the Italian ports, who risk seeing a change of course for the benefit of the north-European airports for ships forced to circumnavigate Africa, extending costs and times. As they demonstrated, the Houthi remain the last loyal “proxy” of Iran still able to threaten Israel with the launch of missiles and drones.
The numerous bombings made by the Aviation of the Jewish State or by the US and British forces to stop the attacks by the Yemenites were not enough. For this reason, Tel Aviv wanted to act directly in the Red Sea with a surprise move. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the Arab rebels has in fact decided to use the Navy, as well as the aviation, imposing a naval block with a base on site. An installation of the Navy would also allow Israeli hunting to be much more effective as they should go a shorter journey and would have an infrastructure network available.
If many have chosen Gibuti’s city to open an outpost in the turbulent waters of the Red Sea, Israel is close to concluding an agreement with Somaliland, the former British Somalia.
This state, independent self -proclaiming over 30 years ago, has completely detached itself, from the impractical Somalia – for decades torn by a civil war with the Islamist terrorist groups – and has about 700 kilometers of coasts to be made available to those who want to invest.
The first to come forward were the United Arab Emirates who in 2017 opened their military base in the city of Berbera. They also signed an agreement for the training of local troops and for a supply of light weapons to the army. Abu Dhabi said he was ready to modernize the old port of Berbera allocating half a billion dollars. United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are in fact the two main commercial partners of the former British Somalia Somalia and together they are also working to get this state the international recognition to which she has been aspired for years.
Tel Aviv, with the signature of the Abraham agreements, has normalized the relations with the Emirates and thanks to this he sees the possibility of having a maritime outlet in Somaliland. On the other hand, Emiratini and Saudi consider the Iranian Houthi threads a dangerous enemy and have been fighting them for years.
Abu Dhabi’s armed forces already have a common base with Tel Aviv on the Yemenita island of Socotra from which they control traffic in transit from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea. Israel, in addition to Socotra, has set up a base of intelligence also in the remote archipelago of the Dahlak, off the coast of Eritrea, and a second location in the highest peak of the African country from which all the communications of the area intercepts.
In exchange for these military structures, the self -proclaimed Somali state would obtain full -bodied investments in the agricultural and extractive sector. The move would already have the approval of the Trump Administration who through the mouth of some representatives of the Republican Party would be ready for the international recognition of Somaliland in the face of his support for the Israeli project and in an anti-Russian and Chinese function.
Yes, Beijing. China, as it is known, has invested in Africa for over 20 years And thanks to the debt trap, it controls most of the continental infrastructures. Addis Abeba airport is managed by a Chinese company and outside the African Union headquarters stands a sign that recalls being a gift from the People’s Republic. In Gibuti, Xi Jinping has opened the wider Chinese military base abroad and from here will pass the path of maritime silk in the direction of the Mediterranean.
Moscow, for its part, keeps the ports of Eritrea and the fundamental Port Sudan under controlthe great Sudanese hub with enormous potential. Russia is the first arms provider of the region and works without interfering in Chinese investments, lending its mercenaries to defend them. A very interested collaboration.
The weight of Somaliland therefore grows exponentially and President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi appointed Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan Bakal, a businessman with strong ties in the United States. The young diplomat wants to impress acceleration to the country’s foreign policy and tells the projects to Panorama. «The president has deeply renewed his government because he wants Somaliland to change step away. My Ministry has as its main objective to obtain international recognition and attract investments from abroad. We have opened channels with Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and above all United Arab Emirates. Israel is also becoming a very important partner with agricultural cooperation agreements. We have military agreements with several nations including Israel, but at the moment the only active base is that of the United Arab Emirates. With Tel Aviv the negotiation is going on and we want to collaborate with them, but above all with the United States who with the new administration have understood our right to exist. Meanwhile, our intelligence has discovered that the Houthi are looking for an alliance with the pirates of Puntland, the region bordering Somaliland and also with the terrorists of Al-Shabaab, the allies of Al Qaeda. Here the Somaliland will do everything to prevent its citizens from ending up in a whirlwind of death and violence as it happened in Somalia ». A delicate and crucial game of geopolitical balances: that Israel could exploit to become a military power between Asia and Africa.
