INPS accounts are getting worse. The CIV (Steering and Oversight Committee) has approved the institute’s 2024 budget estimate, which closes with a negative result of 9.2 billion euros. A result in line with expectations. However, there are different data to reflect on. Starting with the increase of 12.7 billion in transfers made by the State. They are needed to cover the hole that has been created in the institute’s accounts due to the decontributions wanted by the government to promote employment. The burden on general taxation thus goes from 169 to 182 billion. Much more serious is the second entry with the drop in net assets, which goes from 29.8 to 25 billion. A worrying trend because without a corrective intervention in 2032 it will be negative by 45 billion. In the long run, therefore, do we expect cold and gnashing of teeth? As the president of INPS, Gabriele Fava, is keen to explain, the situation is serious but at the moment there is no alarm about the stability of the accounts. Given the role he holds, obviously, he could not have said anything different. Unless he wants to be accused of sabotage while the government prepares to launch the 2025 maneuver.
The accounts, however, deserve some reflection. Starting from the fact that the “core business” of the INPS (collecting contributions and paying out annuities) works well. This is demonstrated by the fact that in 2024 the institute will collect 2.4 billion more than expected. The problem arises from the so-called “contributory hump”. That is, there will be a time when the number of pensioners will be equal to that of active workers. The phenomenon arises from the intersection of two variables: the increase in life expectancy (now above 80 years) and the decrease in births which, in the long run, will reduce the number of workers. Just to understand: in 2023, 380 thousand cribs were opened, a negative record in the last fifteen years. Italian women are getting married later and later (32.4 years) and are having few children (1.24 while at least two would be needed to keep the population from decreasing). For this reason, Minister Giorgetti will have to shelve the quota system (starting with quota 103) so dear to Salini. The adoption of this instrument (starting with the famous quota 100 of 2019) together with other loopholes (from the nine safeguards for the early retirees, to the social Ape) has led to the paradox: Italy has the highest retirement age in Europe (67 years) but the effective age (64.2 years) is one of the lowest precisely because of the many channels for early retirement.
