Higher bills of at least 10% on the way. The expensive gas will be felt by families and businesses in Italy and Europe. The price rose, driven by the stoppage of the passage of Russian gas from Ukraine due to the non-renewal of the contract and by the increase in requests for cold weather. Inventories in Europe have thus fallen below 70% (in Italy better, we are at 77.9%), the second lowest value from 2021 to date
The Arera (Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks and the Environment) predicts a 9-10% increase in energy bills in the first months of 2025. An analysis by Facile.it estimates an increase of 272 euros per year between electricity and gas for typical free market families, with a total expense that will reach 2,841 euros, compared to 2,569 euros today (+11%). The gas bill will be the most affected: the annual one will go from 1,744 to 1,920 euros (+176 euros). For electricity, the increase will be 96 euros, with the expense rising from 826 to 921 euros. Businesses, especially small and medium-sized ones, will not be safe: the Unimpresa Study Center predicts spending of 1.6 billion euros more in 2025.
Gas reached a peak of 50 euros/MWh at the beginning of the year, definitely under control compared to the 130-150 euros/MWh of 2022, but is still growing compared to the lows recorded in recent months. A harsher than expected winter increased the demand for gas, but above all the interruptions in Russian supplies which reduced the availability of gas on the market had an impact on costs.
With the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Europe has increasingly diversified its supply sources in recent years. The use of liquid natural gas from the United States and pipelines from Algeria and Norway has increased. But the boom of recent weeks has been felt on the market. In Europe, gas reserves have fallen below 70%, for the second time to the lowest since 2021. Italy, with stocks at 77.9%, is calmer, above the European average, but the levels are down compared to previous years. In January 2023 we were at 81.8%. “There are no supply problems. Our reserves are sufficient to cover demand, even in the event of further cold peaks”, reassured Gilberto Pichetto, Minister of the Environment and Energy Security. But the rapid emptying of storage could complicate filling reserves for next winter and affect prices. The possible spiral of increases experienced in 2022 is frightening, with consequences on the pockets of families and companies and repercussions on inflation and consequently on European monetary policy.
Solutions? Continue to increasingly diversify supply sources and work on an “Italy-Germany” alliance to cut the cost of gas. The decoupling of the price of gas from that of electricity has also been on the table for some time. “It’s the great European battle. We need to make sure that EU countries agree, because not all of them have the same interests.” In short, a European agreement is needed to decouple electricity from the high and fluctuating cost of gas.
