The Ferrari stock collapses by 14% and burns 12 billion: the markets do not forgive the backtracking on electric, between luxury brand ambitions and record numbers
In the world of Maranello everything runs fast. Even when going in reverse. At Capital Markets Day, president John Elkann spoke enthusiastically about the future of the Prancing Horse. More revenues, more dividends, more buybacks. And, so as not to miss anything, a good braking on the electric. The result? A hole of over 12 billion euros in the stock market, with the Ferrari stock losing 14% in a single day, sinking below 350 euros. The fall brings the balance of the year into the red (but in a shade that Maranello doesn’t like), considering that on 2 January the stock was worth 409 euros. A disappointment that closely resembles those collected this year on the F1 circuits only partially compensated by the triumph at the 24 hours of Le Mans
The mockery of perfect numbers
The paradox paid off: the company improved its estimates for 2025, promised revenues of 9 billion by 2030, a gross margin of at least 3.6 billion, earnings from a fashion house more than a car factory and a package for shareholders of 7 billion between dividends and buybacks.
Yet Piazza Affari first and Wall Street later (the two stock exchanges hosting the stock) have turned on their heel. Investors, as we know, are wary: if you pamper them too much with “off-scale” results, they run away. They convince themselves that there must be a catch somewhere. John Elkann learned the hard way that flying high is risky, especially if you want to convince the market that building a cutting-edge automobile, with all the industrial and technological complexity that this entails, is the same thing as making a handbag or a scarf. With a P/E of 46.6 times, a capitalization of 74 billion dollars and Parisian high fashion multiples, Ferrari had entered the elite of luxury. But now the red carpet seems to have been rolled out.
The “strategic retreat” on electric
And here we come to the heart of the matter: the “Ferrari Elettrica”, the first battery-powered car from the Rossa. A project that was supposed to be the revolution, the shock, the electrocution on the road to Maranello. Instead, it turned out to be a nightmare. In 2022 there was talk of a 100% electric range at 40% by 2030. Now, however, the music has changed: only 20% will be full electric, the rest a cocktail of petrol and hybrid. Translated: electric yes, but only if it doesn’t disturb too much the roar of the V12 which according to Enzo Ferrari was the perfect architecture: a powerful, elastic, generous engine. . An electric car with synthetic sound? Never. Rather an electric fake, but with a warm heart. The “Electrica” will arrive, of course, but without too much haste. In the meantime, Ferrari is relying on what it does best: bringing out limited edition models, sold to customers already on the waiting list, who aren’t looking at the CO2 but at the Prancing Horse on the hood. A real revolution, but in slow motion.
The Hermès syndrome
The problem is that president Elkann and CEO Vigna got a little carried away. They stopped thinking of Ferrari as a car company and started dressing as a luxury brand. The numbers confirm it: ROE (Return on Investment) at 46%, operating margin over 30%, earnings per share growth of 17.8% on average per year. All magnificent. It’s a shame that these numbers, in the ruthless world of investors, are only valid until the next quarterly report. And if only one forecast appears conservative – as Citibank analysts have pointed out – then you’re done. Because when you promised the Moon, the market demands at least the Sun
A step back like champions
The stock collapsed, moving averages turned lower, and key support levels fell like skittles. Below 400 euros there is no longer the red carpet, but the gravel. Like the one that bogs down single-seaters that go off the track, preventing them from returning to the race. And if you drop below 345, you could test the very dangerous 300 euro zone. Nothing but a fast lap. And things are no better at Agnelli’s house: Exor, the holding company that controls Ferrari, lost 10% in Amsterdam, overwhelmed by the boomerang effect. John Elkann, who seemed ready to toast with champagne, finds himself having to explain why a “revolutionary” strategy was welcomed as a misstep. Perhaps because, when writing the new industrial plan, the red paint, which came out in abundance, smeared the paper.
Waiting for November
Now all eyes are on the quarterly November 4th: revenues are expected to grow by 5% and a margin of 475 million. But, judging by the mood of the markets, further record numbers will not be enough. It will take a bit of magic, an illusionist’s trick. Or, who knows, a real roar. The kind that makes pedestrians dizzy. And the future, as we know, doesn’t wait. Not even if it has the Cavallino on the bonnet.
