The rebels engaged in the offensive in northern Syria have reached the vicinity of Hama, a strategic city in the country. According to non-governmental organizations active in the region, intense clashes occurred with the pro-government army, supported by the Russian air force and significant military reinforcements. We talk about the situation in Syria with Adrian Calamel American analyst member of the Arabian Peninsula Institute.
What is happening in Syria?
To fully understand the situation, it is necessary to contextualize the 2011 Syrian civil war, the terrorist organization now known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and ISIS. During the so-called Arab Spring of 2011, which toppled one leader after another, Syria became the last destination, but Assad was not overthrown unlike Hosni Mubarak, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Gaddafi and Saleh. The Syrian iteration of the Arab Spring immediately turned violent, Assad brutally cracked down on civilians, and Sunni jihadists from around the world, including Hamas, invaded the battlespace to remove a secular dictator using terrorism and asymmetric warfare. In the midst of the Syrian civil war, a civil war broke out within Al-Qaeda over the direction and command of the terrorist organization’s efforts in the region. Within the Syrian civil war, the al-Qaeda franchise Jabhat al-Nusrah (Nusrah Front) led by Abu Muhammad al-Joulani had control of operations in the Levant, while the then al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi he had the “Iraq dossier”.
When the leader of al-Qaeda Ayman al-Zawahri prevented Baghdadi from controlling regional operations and supplanting the Nusrah Front, the Islamic State was created by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Using military tactics, terrorism, and extreme violence, ISIS was able to quickly establish its Iraqi capital in Mosulnot only conquering the territory, but also holding it against any Iraqi attempt to liberate the north. In Syria, the Islamic State quickly overwhelmed all resistance, including the Nusrah Front, and established another capital in Raqqa. The state created by Baghdadi, its open barbarism, and the danger it posed to the Middle East and the world produced a global coalition against ISIS that ultimately eliminated its physical caliphate. With the focus on ISIS, Joulani rebranded al-Nusrah as “a gentler option,” a strategy that al-Qaeda has adopted to grow its presence in the world, pious and reasonable as opposed to a cult of bloodthirsty death, as ISIS snuff films show. Joulani even renamed his al-Qaeda branch Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), giving the impression to many observers that the umbilical cord had been severed by al-Qaeda and that their sole ambition was to avoid complete elimination and to maintain a small footprint in northwestern Syria. Once ISIS was eliminated and Assad regained control of Syria in 2018, Joulani was cornered in Idlib, on the border with Turkey, but the final assault on HTS never came and Joulani created an al-Qaeda enclave/state for the past six years. Until their recent offensive, the common narrative around HTS was reference points of al-Qaeda and the Taliban, no regional aspirations, a tolerant and surrounded Islamist society in Idlib. What’s happening? HTS and Al-Qaeda have always had regional designs for Syria, Islamists are not tolerant and HTS has not been backed into a corner because of Türkiye.
Why has HTS only now launched its counteroffensive and who armed the jihadists?
There are a couple of important questions that need to be asked about whoever decided to launch this blitzkrieg offensive against Assad, but this may take time. Did Joulani make this decision alone? Did Turkey give the order? After seeing several videos of Turkish hardware in the hands of HTS, Erdogan’s Turkey played an important role in arming the jihadists, did he give the order? Whoever made the decision must have seen the Israeli operations of the last year and the result: the personnel of Hezbollah who fought on the ground against al-Nusrah and ISIS has been severely demoted. Whoever made the decision probably looked at Russia’s air campaign in Syria and Ukraine, then bet on Putin being militarily tense and on any commitment to Assad. HTS and whoever decided to launch this offensive saw a weakness and a moment of opportunity that will likely stall and collapse.
Many believe that this time Bashar al-Assad will not be able to remain in power. Is that so? And if so, who can replace him? To what extent can the Russians and Iranians support Bashar al-Assad’s regime?
I am very skeptical, the rapid progress made by HTS combined with the alleged military defections, particularly from the air force, are simply not enough to replace Assad. The HTS must demonstrate the ability to conquer and hold territory, which seems impossible unless it has numbers and weapons beyond imagining. During the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah and the IRGC performed poorly against al-Nusrah and with the Islamic Republic displaced I do not expect their results to be any better. Make no mistake: Tehran will do everything it can to ensure that Syria is subdued and continues to operate as a land bridge for Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Islamic Republic has already called on its proxies to defend Syria in what should be seen as a supporting action to halt the HTS advance and save a vassal state, and this will undoubtedly weaken Tehran, limiting its ability to put other countries on fire. Ultimately, it will be Russian air support and the use of indiscriminate bombing that will stop, repel and possibly finish the HTS leaving nothing in Idlib. To win a war you need to control the skies. HTS and the jihadists miscalculated Putin’s commitment to Assad and this will be their downfall, Putin will never cede two military ports on the Mediterranean. The interests of Tehran and Moscow converge just as in 2015, but ten years later we see a coordinated foreign policy that replaces simple “interests”.
How is the crisis experienced in Washington and what will Donald Trump’s new administration do in the Middle East?
In Washington there are people who cheer about Assad’s collapse, people who worry about HTS’s ability to hold Syria and threaten the region, and finally people who understand that this is a complex situation that ultimately leads to more blood being spilled Syrian with little change on the ground. Trump And Biden have both signaled a desire to remove troops stationed in Iraq and Syria, this offensive by HTS and jihadists will hopefully remind the incoming president of the importance of maintaining a military presence in critical areas of both countries and not repeating the mistakes of the past. My hope is that Trump use this leverage to further weaken the Islamic Republic of Iran on another front.
