Everyone in the region knew that an Israeli response to Iran was coming. Tonight’s military action – which hit military targets a Tehranin Khuzestan and around Ilam – was expected. Also because it follows that ruinous concept that in the region they usually call “Arab revenge” and which for a century now has repeatedly plunged the countries that make up the Middle East into spirals of blood whose disastrous results we see today.
After the IDF, the Israeli armed forces, announced that “the reprisal is over” and after having ordered theIran of “don’t respond, otherwise we will react again”, the question arises spontaneously: was there really a need for this attack? “It’s the response to the Iranian attack on October 1st,” he claims Jerusalem. But what prodest? And you can be certain what the regime will or will not do now Tehran? Will he respond in turn, creating a vicious and never-ending cycle?
TO Washington DC there was the expectation – the hope – that Israel he would wait until after the US presidential election before making a similar gesture. He had asked (in vain) to Netanyahu the president himself Bidenaware that America is experiencing the moment of greatest weakness and uncertainty, being on the verge of an extremely delicate election for the US internal balance. But precisely for this reason Netanyahu has acted: the behavior of the Israeli prime minister seems not to have taken into great account – and for a long time now – the opinion of his great Western ally, and he has exploited the formal impotence of the American electoral period to distance himself from the orders of his team « majority shareholder”.
Nonetheless, America’s Gulf allies have every reason to be very nervous. Especially starting from this morning, waiting to see how and if the government will respondIran. THE’Saudi Arabiain particular, condemned the Israeli military attacks, calling them a “violation of Iranian sovereignty and international law” and calling on the parties to “restrain”. Words which, as reported by the Saudi Press Agency (Spa), although avoid making direct reference to Israelindicate in Jerusalem the main responsible for the undue increase in tension. Riadso far equidistant in the storm that has set the region on fire and about to recognize the State of Israel in order to establish official diplomatic relations for the first time, he begins to complain about the “useless” muscular efforts on the Israeli side.
In Saudi Arabia in fact, the memory of the ease with which he Houthis, Yemen’s Iran-backed militia managed to inflict serious damage on its petrochemical installations in a single attack with drones and missiles in 2019, which brought the world’s largest plant to its knees (Abqaiq, owned by Saudi Aramco) and sent five million of oil a day up in smoke for weeks. Riyadh especially reminded the people of this attaché military of the United Stateswhich as is known have military bases along the entire Arab side of the Gulf, with the Fifth Fleet of the US Navy operating from a strategic port in Bahrain. And which is rightly on high alert in these hours.
The United States for their part they made it known that they were not involved in the attack on theIranand in all likelihood they were only warned a few hours earlier. The problem is that around a hundred Stars and Stripes soldiers are currently deployed in Israel as crews to manage the air defense system Thaadand now the White House fears that they may find themselves involved in possible Iranian retaliation. The president Joe Biden had ordered Israel not to strike nuclear, oil and gas installations in theIran. And, apparently, at least in this Netanyahu followed his advice: in fact, the only air defense systems, missile production plants and surface-to-surface missile launchers in the districts of Tehran, Khuzestan And Ilamin the western part of the country. The Americans thus hope that the “modest” attack can convince theIran not to trigger another “Arab revenge”.
For the moment, the Iranian regime also minimizes: «Reports claiming that 100 Israeli military aircraft played a role in the attack are absolute lies, as Israel is trying to exaggerate its weak attack with limited damage», said a source quoted by the Iranian news agency Tasnimalso adding that the sites of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to Tehrani Pasdaran (who are the other face of Iranian power) were not targeted. Which is historically a typical Iranian response after attacks of this type.
However, Iran’s first vice president Mohammad Reza Aref he declared that “Iran’s power will humiliate the enemies of the motherland.” Reason why «it is difficult to stop a series of attacks and counterattacks when the countries involved believe they will be seen as weak and dissuaded if they do not respond. This is how wars intensify and get worse» writes from Jerusalem Jeremy Bowen from the BBC. And here is the crux. By refraining from attacking Iranian oil or nuclear sites, Israel has potentially left room for de-escalation, but this is not necessarily enough to stop new reprisals.
Israel’s military spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagaristated after the attacks concluded that if theIran should “a new cycle of escalation” begin, Israel would be “obliged to respond”. Which, however, indicates an end to hostilities for the moment and puts the decision back in Iranian hands. But how long will the war activity be tolerated? Israel in the region? How far can you really push it Jerusalem?
The IDF is currently engaged in an overt redde rationem on four fronts: in Gaza, where military operations continue even after Yahya Sinwarhead of Hamas in the Strip and gray eminence of the attack on October 7, 2023, was killed here; in Lebanon, where the Israeli Air Force struck more than 70 «terrorist targets» of Hezbollah in the same hours in which he conducted the strikes Iran; in Syriawhere the air defense systems were also hit this night to give freedom of action to the fighters heading in Iran and where the deposits of the pro-Iranian militias that collaborate with the Lebanese “party of God” are hit.
Finally in Yemenwhere the rebels Houthis who have split the country in two are gaining visibility and prestige in the context of the so-called “axis of resistance” that unites Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria and Palestine (Hamas). Behind them, observing the evolution of events, there are also Russia, China and North Korea. And this very element should make us reflect and scare us: it is as if, since Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, this upheaval has caused – intended or not – a sort of generalized “green light” for war, be it conquest (Ukraine and Taiwan), aimed at settling scores (Palestine and Lebanon) or changing the status quo (Yemen, Korea). With each country carving out a different role: who does the “dirty work”, who engages in direct conflicts, who supplies weapons and fattens the military industry.
A domino effect that not only allows, but authorizes more countries to join together – together with Russia today in Ukraine they are also preparing to fight troops from North Korea – in a sort of new “axis of evil” (copyright George W. Bush) in preparation perhaps for a war that would extend from Eastern Europe to the Middle East and Central Asia, such as from the 38th parallel to the coast of Taiwan. A world war, that is, which perhaps will never happen, but which, due to the multiple hostile actions between all the protagonists mentioned above, is increasingly possible.
