The Minister Georgette can breathe a sigh of relief. Italy is one hundred billion richer and this makes a few more billion available for the 2025 economic maneuver. The surprise comes from Istat which has redone national accounting calculations for the last three years. A lower deficit than expected emerges which will make the cuts less heavy.
The Istat data on which expectations were focused is above all the 2023 deficit which, by transforming into additional debt, measures the ratio with GDP. A parameter that according to European treaties should not exceed 3%. However, with Covid the constraints have been skipped. The restoration of the Stability Pact has introduced new rules. Less binding than the previous ones but still non-derogable. The Istat calculation says that in 2023 the deficit was equal to 7.2% of GDP against the previous estimate of 7.4%. It may seem like a minimal difference, but in absolute value it is about four and a half billion. The new calculation has also brought down the debt which is now worth 134.6% of GDP, while in the last Def published in April the government had written that it was equal to 137.3%. Also in this case, therefore, a significant reduction, even if the Italian debt remains among the highest in Europe.
These results are the result of the one hundred billion more in GDP recovered by Istat calculations in the years 2020 (43 billion), 2021 (21 billion) and 2022 (34 billion). The revision of the accounts also means that last year the GDP grew by only 0.7%, while previously it was +0.9%. A reduction that is only apparent considering the upward revision of the GDP in previous years: +4.7% in 2022 (instead of +4%), and +8.9% in 2021 (instead of +8.3%).
What matters, however, is the improvement of the deficit-GDP ratio to 7.2% instead of 7.4%. This allows for slightly more room for maneuver (0.2% of GDP is worth about four and a half billion euros) in writing the budget law. More freedom in managing the available money could also mean fewer cuts. And, therefore, a maneuver slightly less “austere” than previously thought.
“The revision of the data is of slight importance”, commented the Minister of Economy Georgette«and the principles and framework of the Structural Budget Plan already examined by the Council of Ministers on 17 September do not change». The PSB «will be refined», he added, «in light of the numbers communicated today by Istat».
The final text of the Plan is expected at the Council of Ministers scheduled for September 27.
