Place Bellecour, in Lyon, is the largest pedestrian space in Europe. On its red earth, around the equestrian monument of Louis XIV, just over a month ago, protesters gathered against “Emmanuel Macron’s coup”. Then nothing more. That square, so ready to welcome protests of every tone and colour, is silent. A silence in the places of French protest which contrasts with the media-parliamentary stress, with the left gathered in the Nouveau Front Populaire who first claimed electoral victory (in seats, not votes) and claimed the government mandate and then presented a motion for the dismissal of Macron (rejected), followed by a motion of no confidence against the government of Michel Barniera Republican, chosen by the president to lead the executive in defiance of the election results. This motion also did not find a majority. Noisy left and silent squares for now: an unprecedented dichotomy in France, especially in the presence of a “tears and blood” budget, with its 40 billion euros of spending cuts and 20 of new taxes, a whole new dimension for the Hexagon.
The protests will come: starting from healthcare, with a first sectoral strike planned for these days. But in the meantime, looking around, one perceives more resignation than the desire for revolt. Just ask any of the shopkeepers around Place Bellecour: “He’s there to do the dirty work, and someone has to do it,” comments a bookseller about the 73-year-old former European commissioner. Even the manager of a nearby bistro speaks of a somewhat «à la Draghì», called to do «ce qu’il faut»: what is necessary. “It’s clear,” says a customer, “everyone is looking at the 2027 presidential elections, no one wanted to burn themselves out to settle the accounts.”
A budget law like the one presented in recent days by Michel Barnier is unlikely to find a majority: but in France the government can achieve approval without a parliamentary vote. However, parties can propose a motion of no confidence at any time. The first challenge comes from the Court of Auditors, which considers the forecasts “fragile”. Suffice it to say that the government estimates GDP growth of 1.1 percent, apparently in line with the main financial institutions. Except that according to the accounting control body the maneuver will have a recessive effect equal to 0.6 percent of GDP, so the real estimate of the executive is +1.7. Meanwhile, yet another deviation in the deficit has been certified, now forecast at 6.1 percent for 2024, against the initial 4 percent. And then the return to 3 percent envisaged by the European Treaties is postponed until 2029. With a debt destined to grow further in the next two years up to an all-time high of 115 percent of GDP. Figures observed carefully by Europe and the markets: the first to react was Fitchwhich confirmed the rating of the French debt but changed the forecast, which went from “stable” to “negative”. The agency specifies, among other things, that it does not believe in the objectives of reducing the deficit for 2029. At the moment, however, international finance seems reassured by the international credibility and profile of Barnier: weeks ago Claudia Panserichief investment officer of Ubs for France, said a Panorama to expect a more or less “technical” government, outlining a profile perfectly corresponding to the one that Macron would announce shortly afterwards.
The fact remains that the prime minister is walking on a thin line: he has already hinted at considerable deviations and postponements to finance, and he is serving the public a meal made up of a mix of cuts and taxes. He presents it mainly for the part that affects the highest incomes (natural persons with earnings exceeding 500 thousand euros per year and companies with turnover exceeding one billion) but reading between the lines we understand that those “taxes on the rich” are temporary and “will replaced by structural measures” not yet specified; that the savings will contribute ten billion to social spending; that some tax niches for businesses will be cut, some of which could be fundamental for medium and small ones; that the funds of the Municipalities will be revised downwards, and above all the smaller ones will be forced to reduce services and staff; and that a dangerous taboo is touched upon for the first time: that of acquired rights in pension matters.
No reductions in retirement benefits, for now, but we start with the postponement (“temporary”, “provisional”, like many measures that have become definitive) of the indexation of pensions. It will happen in July instead of January. It seems like a harmless technicality but it is in fact a cut, just as the rights of the unemployed will be reduced. And healthcare. It is to be expected that the silence in the square is destined to break in the coming months. As long as the government stays around long enough. The Minister of the Environment Agnès Pannier-Runacher he is already threatening to resign if his budget is not replenished, but these are not the risks for Barnier, who is ready for a thousand reshuffles. Just as Macron is: from crisis to crisis, the poker player at the Elysée survives and cashes in: lucky at times, certainly astute, he will conclude his second and final mandate in 2027. But at what price?
There is another silence, which on the left they consider much more disturbing than that of the square: it is the silence of the far right, which despite having received more votes than anyone else seems inert. In reality, he whispers his requests. He finds attentive ears in the government: «The French want more order, order in the streets, order at the borders», said the new Interior Minister in his investiture speech Bruno Retailleaua member of the Republican right wing. A few days later the executive spokesperson, Maude Bregeonannounced a new law on immigration: «There must be no taboo regarding the protection of the French», he commented. The law firstly provides for the lengthening of detention terms with a view to expulsion. It was a specific request from Marine Le Pen and found broad consensus after the murder of Philippine, the 19-year-old student whose body was found half-buried last September 21st in the Bois de Boulogne, on the outskirts of Paris. According to the investigators, it was Taha O. who killed her, having been released from prison after a rape and locked up in an administrative detention center with a view to expulsion. After two extensions, awaiting the green light from Morocco for repatriation, he was released on 3 September, although the magistrate himself warned of the risk of reoffending. The new law on immigration will arrive in Parliament in the first days of the new year, that is, shortly after the approval of the budget: a do ut des for which the National Rally he doesn’t even have to give an embarrassing vote in favor: just don’t give the government a vote of no confidence. And there Le Pen he had said from day one that “we will evaluate it on the facts”. So, by not supporting the no-confidence vote proposed by the left, the far right is keeping the minority government of Barnierobtaining in exchange the immigration law, an already promised opening to the proportional electoral law (which would further strengthen the RN) and a probable revision of the pension reform: a proposal in this sense was filed by the same party, immediately declared admissible and immediately put on the agenda, with a parliamentary debate starting in recent days. Which among other things forces the left to choose whether to vote in favor of the far right’s proposal or reject it despite having always said they agree with the content.
And then there is information: from the impressive institutional attack of recent months on right-wing newspapers we have quickly moved on to an opening which has seen, among other things, the appointment of a representative of the far right as press rapporteur in the parliamentary commission that deals with funding for culture and information and another within the superior council of the AFP, the public press agency. Finally, there is the hiring of Macron’s stepdaughter, Tiphaine Auzièreat the court of Cyril Hanounaone of the most demonized right-wing journalists. A sort of “royal wedding” to certify the new alliance, they say on the left. So with yet another bluff in which he is a master, Macron maintains power.
