Patrick Ruffini, pollster and founding partner of the research institute Echelon Insights, is convinced that the midterms may hold surprises
The Nov. 3 midterm elections loom. And, at least according to what the polls say, it doesn’t seem that the prospects for the Republicans are particularly rosy. As of October 16, Decision Desk HQ gave the Democrats a 77% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 56% chance of doing the same with the Senate. Not only that: the RealClearPolitics polling average dedicated to general voting intentions for Congress gave Asinello eight points ahead on Friday.
This is a grim scenario for Donald Trump: if the Republicans were to lose the majority in Congress, the president would in fact risk turning into the proverbial “lame duck”.
Of course, the Grand Old Party is suffering above all from the high cost of fuel, triggered by the war in Iran. On the other hand, Asinello has to manage some far-left candidates who could alienate crucial voters. The unknown of the polls then looms over everything: will they be reliable or not?
To try to clarify the situation as best as possible, The Truth interviewed Patrick Ruffini. Renowned pollster and founding partner of the research institute Echelon Insights, he worked on the campaign George W. Bush of 2004 and subsequently joined the Republican National Committee. In 2023 he published the volume Party of the Peoplein which he analyzed the electoral coalition that Trump managed to build, looking especially at blue-collar workers and ethnic minorities. Over the years he has also signed analyzes for the New York Times and for NationalReviewas well as being a guest on Fox News and CNBC.
Patrick Ruffini, the mid-term elections on November 3 are now upon us. What do you think are the strengths and weaknesses of the Republicans?
«Their main strength is electoral geography. The Senate challenges that Democrats need to win are mostly in states where Trump won comfortably; furthermore, in these states, polls have overestimated the Democrats for several electoral cycles. Republicans also enjoy an advantage in terms of financial resources, which they can use to mobilize their electorate in Republican-majority states. Their most significant point of weakness, however, is the national political context: the president’s approval rating stands at percentages between approximately 30% and 40% and, at this point in the electoral campaign, the Republicans appear weaker than I remember in the past”.
And what are the strengths and weaknesses of the Democrats?
«Democrats have the wind in their sails and an electorate that has turned its back on Trump, due to a discrepancy between the cost of living crisis — which voters would have liked Trump to focus on — and the issues they believe he has instead devoted his attention to, particularly the war in Iran. Their weakness is that, to obtain a majority in the Senate, they must win seats in predominantly Republican states. To do that, they must beat Republicans in states like Iowa, Ohio and Texas, where they have often found themselves ahead in the polls, only to end up defeated.”
What are the electoral challenges that will decide these Midterms?
«As for the Senate, they are Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Maine (where the Democrats defend themselves or compete on more favorable terrain) and Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska, which are the key states for the Democrats and which will decide the majority. In the House, contestability has narrowed as Republicans have created more favorable districts, but their political fortunes have declined to the point that they are finding themselves struggling in more Republican-leaning districts that voted for Trump by ten points or more.”
Do you think the polls are reliable this year or should we expect surprises?
«It is possible that they are underestimating the Republicans again. I looked at 3,312 Senate polls from 2018 to 2024. On average they overestimated the Democratic candidate by 3.7 points, and 73% of them overestimated the Democratic candidate. In Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, 93% overestimated the Democratic nominee. Midterm polls tend to correct themselves by Election Day, so a repeat is not guaranteed. But polls in Republican states — which are considered contestable this year — tend to overestimate Democrats.”
Yes, because currently the polls show the Democrats as competitive even in historically Republican states, such as Kansas and Iowa.
“The progress is real in the sense that Democrats are doing better everywhere this year. But I would treat a Democratic lead in Iowa or Kansas with much more caution than a lead in Georgia or Michigan. These are exactly the states where the polls have been most wrong in the past. I would also give more credit to a Texas Dem than an Iowa Dem, because the polls have been more accurate in the Sun Belt than in the Rust Belt (the Midwestern states that made Trump president in the first place).”
Do you think that socialist and far-left candidates, such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan or Angie Nixon in Florida, represent an advantage or a risk for the Democrats?
«They represent a risk for the Democrats, but in such a negative year for the president’s party, the national climate can forgive many ideological sins. Candidates like Abdul El-Sayed can win thanks to anti-establishment energy, which has some appeal to working-class voters. The question is whether they can survive a barrage of last-minute attack ads — and Republicans’ financial advantage will play a factor in that.”
What impact will Trump’s approval rating have on Republicans’ performance in the midterms? In recent weeks, the president has begun holding rallies in support of various candidates. Could they reverse the negative trend?
«Presidential approval rating is the main obstacle for Republican candidates. Historically, a president with an approval rating around 30% means heavy losses for his party in the House. The rallies can help do one thing: mobilize Trump voters who don’t normally vote in midterm elections. This is the main hope of Republicans, but this does not convince undecided voters who are turning against the president.”
What about the vote of blue-collar workers, ethnic minorities and young people?
«These voters drove Trump’s electoral gains in 2024 and are the least reliable voters in the midterm elections and the least connected to either party. The decisive issues are prices, the cost of living and the economy. Republicans will likely maintain most of their gains among white working-class voters rather than among Hispanics and young people, who have moved closer to Democrats because of rising prices.”
I ask you for a final prediction. What results could emerge from the polls on November 3?
«The Democrats are favored to win the House. The Senate is much more uncertain than the national context suggests due to the electoral map. If the polls are accurate, Democrats have a very good chance of winning a majority. If the polls turn out to be wrong (as has happened in recent elections), the Republicans will likely retain control of the Senate.”
