The digital world is bringing out new players such as copper, lithium, nickel, aluminum and uranium. As we burn less and less oil, we must dig deeper for these metals more precious than gold. And it changes the map of global power.
Oil, the black blood of the earth that moves factories, sets markets on fire and decides the geopolitical destinies of nations. The old world, tuned to the heavy beat of pumps in the Middle Eastern deserts and dominated by over 100 million barrels per day devoured by the planet, the scepter is passing. We are facing an epochal changing of the guard, a new kingdom that is no less hungry or ruthless, but decidedly more subtle and brilliant.
From the civilization of fire to the copper age: here are the new raw materials that move the world
The energy of tomorrow is saying goodbye to the heavy fumes of hydrocarbons and their burden of CO2. Today the future prefers the reddish reflections of copperthe silvery shimmer ofaluminum and the invisible thrill of the atom. We are moving in forced stages from the old civilization of fire to that of connections. The map of global power is no longer drawn on wells in the desert, but in laboratories and metal mines once considered “poor” and which today play at being superstars. Who thinks that the ecological transition whether it’s a gala lunch, you would do well to take a ride on the roller coaster of the commodity exchanges: in the last three years, the prices of industrial raw materials have been turbocharged, recording average price increases above 40%.
The true beating heart of this metamorphosis does not beat on the highways, but inside the temples of digital silence: i data centers. THE’Artificial intelligencewhich the gurus of Silicon Valley they love to paint it as an immaterial and ethereal soul, it actually has a very heavy skeleton made of metal and silicon. It’s an insatiable Godzilla that chews electricity and spits heat. Already this year, global data centers will consume themselves over 1,000 Terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity: in practice, they will drink the entire energy of Japan by themselves. To make the thoughts of these electronic brains spin, kilometers of artificial veins are needed.
And these veins are lined with copper. The red metal has become the very nervous system of the new world, the magic ingredient for the wiring and giant air conditioners that save servers from thermal collapse while grinding algorithms. A single extra-large data center can get to swallow you over 50 thousand tons of copper. If AI is the mind, copper is the biceps. Even King Midas like Jeff Bezos And Bill Gates they decided to play Treasure Hunt by investing in KoBold Metalsa startup that uses artificial intelligence to find secret caches of copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt. In the rooms of Trading economics copper the air is hot: analysts see the red metal projected towards a stellar range between 11 thousand and 14 thousand dollars per ton. It’s all one man’s fault supply deficit which threatens to reach 500 thousand tonnes per year, risking pulling the plug on the dreams of technophiles.
The impact of electric mobility and the infrastructure bottleneck
But red gold fever isn’t just affecting computers. There is a global fleet pushing to be electrified: every electric car that leaves the factory is born with approximately 83 kilos of copper in body, a huge leap compared to the paltry 20 required by a petrol car.
Practically, Elon Musk he’s buying so much copper that soon they’ll be sending him happy birthday cards straight from the mines of Chile.
As if that weren’t enough, the world’s energy highways need to be completely rebuilt to handle the load of renewables: by 2040 it will be necessary to lay out or refresh something like 80 million kilometers of power lines across the planet. The result? A close-up treasure hunt that risks leaving the warehouses dry even before the new deposits open, given that to inaugurate a mine you need between 12 and 15 years of excavations and bureaucracy.
The new nobles of industry: the race for aluminum and nickel
In this court of industrial miracles, copper shares the throne with the new nobles of the transition: aluminum and nickel. Forget about orange soda cans or cheap window frames; today aluminum is the shining armor of the green revolution. It is the light metal par excellence, essential for putting cars on a diet – where the average weight per vehicle has jumped from 140 kilos in 2010 to almost 210 today – and to make the current travel at very high voltage without dispersing it on the road. Meanwhile, its price has been tap-dancing on records: from 2010 to today it is took off by 45-50%going from just over 2,100 dollars per ton to current $3,165. At retail it means jumping from 2.2 to over 3.1 dollars per kilograma nice increase that ends up straight on the price list of new cars. Nickel, for its part, plays the part of the secret ingredient in the recipe of long-range batteries, which hide up to 40 kilograms under the floor to provide kilometers of autonomy and stability.
The levers of geopolitics: China’s dominance and European vulnerability
The real drama of this risk of raw materials, however, is not just how much to dig, but where to dig. The new world, unfortunately, has taken the bad habit from the old: the offer is concentrated in very few hands. There China took the lion’s share and controls over 60% of lithium refiningThe 70% of the cobalt and a colossal 85% of rare earths. Geopolitical funnels are being created that closely resemble the old golden days of OPEC oil. Whoever controls the metal kitchen, today controls the switch of the new industry. And theEurope? Look at the map with shortness of breath and light wallets: imports over 90% of critical metals for its technology and discovered, with a shudder, that strategic dependence has only changed address on the map.
The financial redemption of uranium led by the tech giants
But the funniest twist of this gold rush is the triumphant return ofuranium. For years he has remained punished in the corner of history, looked at with suspicion for the horror with which he has been cloaked since his first appearance on the skies of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Today nuclear fuel is experiencing a second youth as a financial rock star. And guess who deserves the credit? Once again some tech wizards.
Feeding data centers with bread, wind and sun is an already lost bet: artificial intelligence cannot pause if the breeze calms down or if night falls. Computers require continuous, massive energy, with a capacity factor greater than 92% (while panels and wind turbines stop lazily between 25% and 35%). Plus, this energy must be as clean as a mirror, without emitting a single gram of CO2, so as not to ruin corporate sustainability presentations.
And here it is Big Tech knocked on the door of the atom, signing long-term armored supply contracts with nuclear power plants. Uranium has returned to making the hearts of the markets beat: after having broken down the psychological wall of $100 at the beginning of the yearthe spot prices of Trading economics uranium they settled permanently around $85 per poundwhile long-term contracts travel happily over $91.
In short, uranium has removed its mask as the protagonist of the apocalypse and has become the favorite energy drink of the brains of Silicon Valley. Practically, Homer Simpson just received a job offer as an intern from Sam Altman to OpenAI. For the lords of the algorithm it is no longer a radioactive ember from which to run like hell, but the adrenaline that gives wings to the dreams of artificial intelligence.
With one of the most ironic twists in economic history, the ecological transition has discovered that to make an immaculate and “green” future happen, a powerful, energetic nudge from the old and much-feared atom is needed.
