While the West is strengthening its isolation towards Russia with sanctions and diplomatic measures, Moscow is turning its attention to Africa, seeking to expand its economic and political influence. The most striking example of this strategy is the recent approval of a draft agreement for the construction of a billion-dollar oil pipeline in the Republic of Congo. This project, which may seem like a simple economic operation, actually hides much deeper geopolitical ambitions. Russia, struggling due to international isolation, is trying to fill the gaps in Western markets by exploiting Africa’s vast natural resources.
The deal with Congo appears to be highly unbalanced. As reported by Foreign Affairs magazine, one of the most authoritative in the field of international relations, Russia will control 90% of the resources of the joint venture, leaving Congo with a modest 10%. This gap has fueled growing concerns about a possible “energy neocolonialism”, with the risk that Congo will be relegated to a marginal role while its resources are used to strengthen the Russian economy. The project is headed by Zakneftegazstroj-Prometej LLC, but behind this structure lies a complex power dynamic that could further exacerbate the poverty of the Congolese population.
Russia’s expansion in Africa, tracing new trade and energy routes, must also be interpreted in light of a significant failure in the Kremlin’s global energy strategy. In fact, Mongolia recently refused to participate in the construction of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline, an infrastructure that would have connected Russia to China. For Moscow, this project represented an important energy route to Asia, but Ulaanbaatar decided not to proceed, worried about its sovereignty and the growing Russian and Chinese control.
But Russia’s strategy in Africa is not limited to the energy sphere. On the military level, Moscow is increasingly consolidating its presence with the Wagner Group paramilitaries, which has been joined by the Russian Africa Corps. In addition, the Kremlin is intensifying bilateral agreements with key countries in the region such as Mali, Libya and Burkina Faso, thus consolidating its geopolitical and military influence on the African continent.
This approach allows Russia to gain privileged access to African mineral resources, offering armed support in exchange. This has allowed the Kremlin to significantly reduce France’s influence in many of its former African colonies, skillfully exploiting the growing anti-Western sentiment.
Competition with China, in particular, is fierce. Beijing already has a consolidated presence on the continent and, with an energy market share of 27-28%, it far surpasses Russia. Moscow also has to deal with the complexity of local political dynamics and the instability of many African countries. While Russia seeks to gain new allies and markets, it risks fueling new tensions at the local and international levels, with alliances that could prove unsustainable.
As highlighted by the Australian magazine The Diplomat, despite these apparent successes, Russian influence in Africa is far from assured. China, in particular, represents a formidable rival with an already entrenched presence on the continent and a 27-28% share of the energy market, which surpasses Russia’s. In addition to Chinese competition, Moscow faces challenges posed by the complexity of local political dynamics and the instability of many African countries. As Russia seeks to gain new allies and markets, it risks fueling new tensions at the local and international levels, with alliances that could prove unsustainable.
The alliance between Russia and Congo, which Moscow presents as a triumph for both sides, could in fact turn into a new form of dependence for the African country. Behind the appearance of cooperation, with Russia’s overwhelming control over resources, Congo risks becoming an expendable pawn in the broader geopolitical chessboard, leaving little room for the country’s real economic and political development. Moscow continues its race to maintain its status as a global power, but expansion in Africa may not bring the desired results, especially if it were to fuel new tensions and conflicts on the continent.
