The alarm raised by Bruno Kahlhead of German foreign intelligence (BND), has raised a wave of concern across Europe. Kahlduring a hearing in the Bundestag, stated that the risk of a direct military conflict between Russia and NATO is increasingly realunderlining that the Kremlin is preparing its armed forces for a large-scale attack. Second Kahlthe Russian goal is to test the limits of the West, undermine NATO cohesion and “push the United States out of Europe”.
What scenario could emerge? Liana Fixa foreign policy expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, speculated that a Russian attack on NATO by 2030 could trigger the most devastating conflict Europe has seen since World War II.
NATO, bound by Article 5 of its treaty, would be forced to respond militarily, dragging the entire continent into a spiral of violence and instability. Article 5 establishes the principle of collective defense: an attack against one or more member countries is considered an attack against all members of the Alliance. This principle was invoked only once, after the attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States.
In line with German intelligence claims, Fix he underlined that Moscow perceives the West as an adversary to be fragmented to weaken its collective defensive capacity. By cleverly exploiting internal divisions among NATO member countries, Russia could weaken the West’s collective response. This approach would allow it to consolidate its influence in Europe, progressively eroding NATO’s strategic and diplomatic cohesion. In this scenario, Moscow could transform the divisions into real instruments of political and military destabilization on the continent.
Among the numerous threats looming over the geopolitical landscape, there is one that causes particular concern: the risk of nuclear escalation. Ulrich Kühndirector of the Nuclear Security Program at the Institute for Research on Peace and Security Policy in Hamburg, put Europe on guard, highlighting the sensitivity of the situation. Russia, which has one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world, could resort to the threat of using atomic weapons not only to dissuade NATO from a military response, but also to gain decisive strategic advantages.
The risk is no longer just theoretical. The suspension of Russian participation in the New START Treaty has aggravated the situationas Moscow could rapidly increase its nuclear arsenal. The treaty, signed in 2010 and extended until 2026, limited the strategic nuclear warheads deployed by Russia and the United States to 1,550. However, in 2023, the Kremlin decided to suspend its membership, fueling serious concerns about the global stability of nuclear arsenals and reigniting fears of a new arms race.
In this climate of growing tension, the unity of the West becomes crucial. If Europe and the United States fail to maintain a united front in supporting Ukraine and defending democratic values, Russia could prevail in its long-term strategy. As he pointed out Bruno Kahl, “the real battle is not just for Ukraine, but for the world order”. Moscow does not seem willing to give up its geopolitical ambitions; therefore, cooperation between Western nations and the strengthening of common defenses represent the most effective tools to prevent the worst-case scenario from becoming reality.
