On the day Hong Kong was handed over to China, July 1, 1997, it rained almost continuously, as if even the sky had something to say. On that occasion, a German journalist asked the last outgoing British governor, Chris Patten: “What will change more in the coming years, Hong Kong or China?”. His answer was eloquent: “China.”
Today that scene seems about to repeat itself, but with the island of Taiwan and above all with other means that do not accommodate diplomacy. The Taipei government’s “difficult week” began yesterday, when 153 Chinese military planes flew threateningly over the airspace above the island of Taiwan. They aren’t preparations for an invasion yet, but they look a lot like one. In fact, these were the exercises at the end of the Joint Sword 2024/B day with which Beijing wanted to send a “severe warning” to the leadership of the island of Formosa, to dissuade it from possible “separatist acts of the independence forces”. Or perhaps they are the dress rehearsals of a landing attempt that could take shape in the next few years (or months).
Having reached Xi Jinping’s third term, the leader of communist China made a sudden acceleration and planned the annexation of Taiwan (“the return” as he says) by 2025, significantly anticipating 2049 which will mark the centenary of the foundation of the People’s Republic: the annexation of the island by that date would be the best way to celebrate the centenary and close a long page of revolutionary history.
At this point, few people doubt that the reunification of the “rebel” island with the motherland is a negligible objective on the part of the Chinese leadership, especially after an uninterrupted series of provocations from Beijing. In fact, President/Secretary Xi would like the “one China” project to materialize by that date, to make it the flagship of his legacy; a bit like Vladimir Putin intends to conquer Ukraine so that posterity can say that the Russian leader has expanded the living space of the Federation. The reason for these belligerent intentions is quickly explained: just as Putin is driven by ideology and sees everything from an imperialist perspective, so too Xi believes he can go down in history as the statesman who succeeded where not even Mao Zedong could or dared.
Annexing the island of Taiwan would indeed be the accomplishment of a lifetimethat of the Chinese leader, which went beyond the wildest hopes. But it could also turn out to be a terrible boomerang, as Putin himself is experiencing in the Ukrainian quagmire. On paper, in fact, China’s excessive power is evident: 1.4 billion Chinese against just 24 million Chinese/Taiwanese allow Beijing’s armed forces to rightly dream that the “resurgence of the Chinese nation” will arrive well before 2049. Also because the end of Xi’s third mandate coincides in theory with 2028, which complicates things quite a bit if we give credence to the fact that, as some minority leaders of the Communist Party say in a whisper, for Xi Jinping annexation rhymes with obsession.
When Guangdong governor Xi Zhongxun established special economic zones in his province, he made sure Fujian province got one too, in the coastal city of Xiamen. So in 1985, the Party leader of Fujian Province, Xiang Nan, to return the favor, then arranged for his friend Xi Zhongxun’s son to become vice mayor of the city of Xiamen, which is located right across from Taiwan . And who was that lucky son? Precisely Xi Jinping, who from the prestigious position obtained thanks to his father, by opening the windows of his office could almost see the island of Formosa and every morning he was bitter about the lack of annexation. So, he promised himself one day to remedy it, at all costs and by all means.
This is the romantic narrative. Then there is the more concrete aspect which sees the Taiwan Strait as in all respects an unavoidable strategic objective for the passage of Chinese goods towards the rich West. And therefore, Xi or no Xi, dream or no dream, that strip of sea cannot be left to be managed by hostile countries (in the meantime, as is known, Taiwan has given itself democratic self-government and has become strongly linked to the West).
But a military invasion is known when and how it begins, while its end is completely unknown. History is full of examples and currently, not only Putin but also Netanyahu in Israel are faced with a reality on the ground that is very different from that so favorably described in the careful war plans of his generals.
Beijing against Taiwan deploys the theoretically most powerful marine force in the world: with around 360 combat ships, in recent years it has surpassed even the US fleet, which today has just under 300 vessels. It boasts 50 frigates, 32 destroyers, 60 submarines, 21 landing ships and 2 aircraft carriers. And it also has the largest air force in Asia: in 2020 it had 1,527 combat aircraft and 722 transport aircraft, to which should be added another 290 fighter aircraft supplied to the navy, 281 attack helicopters and 985 transport helicopters.
The Taiwanese navy, however, has few submarines with dated technology and a flotilla of surface patrol boats, unsuitable for stopping or even slowing down a landing attempt.. Things are better for the Air Force which, however, with just 260 fighter planes and some fighters produced internally, would not be able to guarantee a long-term “defensive bubble” over the Strait.
It is therefore not on open conflict at sea or in the skies that the destinies of the island are being played out. Rather, in the Beijing war room we think about how defensible the island is by the Taiwanese. And this explains the frequent overflights of Chinese jets over the airspace of Formosa, which are used by Beijing to monitor the real condition of the island’s defenses and certainly not as a mere provocation.
The hedgehog strategy
According to American war plans, an all-out defense using heavy artillery could be enough to disrupt the Chinese landing units (hence the requests to the Europeans): the island of Formosa is less than 180 kilometers from the continent and – with the missiles that Washington supplies (and will supply) to Taipei – it would take Beijing’s strike forces weeks to complete landing operations under a hail of missiles directed at the fleet. Batteries of short and medium range anti-ship systems are already scattered in key points on the coast facing the Taiwan Strait. Therefore, as long as Taipei’s missile defenses are not destroyed, the Island cannot be conquered.
They call it the “hedgehog strategy”. consists in equipping itself with a large arsenal of missiles and a dense network of artillery pieces, to resist the Chinese shock wave. Furthermore, Taipei engineers have spent decades digging tunnels and bunkers to protect civilians and soldiers for this very purpose, as Taiwan’s entire national defense strategy is based on countering a Chinese invasion.
This explains why Beijing has been sending some of its observers to Ukraine for two years, where the battle for Donbass is fought mainly with the sound of missiles and anti-aircraft. The Chinese generals want to understand how effective (and for how long) the weapons systems that the West has supplied to Kiev are, also because they are completely similar to those that the United States has already supplied and will supply to Taipei, and possibly find out the weak sides, to then be exploited on the pitch. For this reason, Wang Wenjuan, an expert from the Academy of Military Sciences and member of the Chinese Communist Party, wanted to send a message first and foremost to the US: “They must stop arming Taiwan and sending the wrong signals to the separatist forces for Taiwan’s independence.”
The war drums therefore resonate in the Forbidden City as well as along the Taiwan Strait, waiting for the casus belli that offers Beijing the pretext to attempt the unfathomable: wage war after almost eighty years of peacewith all the unknowns of the case, including the possible response of the American superpower. «Taiwan will never be an autonomous country and China will never renounce the use of force»Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian clarified on the topic this week. “The goal is to force Taiwan to feel the deterrence of war, sending a clear message: secession means war.”
Beyond these alarmisms, in any case, the hope remains that all the administrations in office, including that of Joe Biden, will reach more lenient advice. Without considering that, since Taiwan is not a country recognized by the international community nor an effective member of the United Nations, it would be difficult to convince the West to defend it. Only Japan might not care about these formalities, considering that the Chinese threat involves it directly. Xi Jinping knows this and in the dark halls of power he ponders what to do. For how much longer, we will soon see.
