The new EU proposal on tobacco excise duties increases taxes and price increases, threatens the Italian supply chain and risks encouraging the illicit market
The issue of excise duties on tobacco returns to the center of the European debate. On December 4th, the Working Party on Tax Questions will examine a new proposal put forward by the Danish Presidency for the revision of the TED Directive. A text which, according to many professionals, not only does not resolve the critical issues already highlighted in recent months, but introduces even more rigid and onerous measures.
The first drafts: unprecedented increases
The Commission’s initial proposals had already raised strong eyebrows controversy over the planned tax increases: +139% on cigarettes, +258% on shredded tobacco and over +1,000% on cigars. Community estimates indicated average increases in consumer prices of around 20%, with an impact on inflation of half a percentage point. It is not surprising that the public consultation ended with a clear result: 92% of participants expressed a contrary opinionciting risks to employment, penalization of less harmful alternatives and growth in smuggling.
The new Danish proposal: even heavier price increases
The text presented by the Presidency Danish instead expects further increases. For heated tobacco, taxation would increase by +132% compared to the initial proposal, with an estimated impact on prices of approximately +2 euros per pack. Furthermore, smokeless products would be taxed more than some types of traditional smoking tobacco, while increases of up to 1,000% are hypothesized for nicotine sachets. A choice that raises questions about consistency with public health objectives.
Italy on the front line: a supply chain of 100,000 people
Italy is among the main exporters to the world of innovative alternative products to cigarettes, such as heated tobacco and nicotine sachets. A supply chain that involves over 100,000 people, including farmers, manufacturing companies, logistics and retailers, and which in recent years has invested huge resources in innovation. Experts warn: measures of this type risk bringing a strategic sector for the national economy to its knees and to encourage the illicit market, already growing in Europe.
Next steps
The comparison between member states will be decisive. If the text is confirmed, the debate will move to the headquarters ECOFINwith a legislative process that could continue into 2026.
