Among Kiev’s troops there is a belief that even in the event of a truce, Moscow will attack again within a few years
“The war situation is a mess.” These are the words spoken by Donald Trumpa very direct phrase that leaves little hope for the success of the peace plan. But there is an obstacle, among the many that hold back the peace process between Russia and Ukrainewhich is proving increasingly difficult to overcome: the majority of Ukrainian soldiers not only have the conviction that they are fighting for a higher cause such as the defense of the homeland, but also that which Russia remains determined to conquer Ukraine even in a few years regardless of the type of agreement reached and the leader who sooner or later will replace Vladimir Putin. The reality, however, is a 1,300 km long front in which Kiev’s troops are the only barrier between the peaceful civilian life of Ukrainians and the Russian invasion.
The doubts of Ukrainian soldiers
Years of war have led soldiers to root forts doubts about whether Moscow can be trusted to comply with a peace agreement. Especially in the absence of security guarantees such as the now unlikely membership of NATO. The widespread idea among the Ukrainian forces is that, even if a lasting peace is achieved that stops the fighting for a long period, the Russians will sooner or later advance again.
Serhii Filimonovbattalion commander of the Ukrainian army and in civilian life a trader, interviewed a few days ago by the broadcaster Al Jazeeradeclared: “This possible truce will be short-livedwill serve to reorganize the Russian forces, but then they will return. I think it would be useful for the Russians to end the war, remove sanctions, prepare for a new war and attack again. I don’t think there can be peace before Russia is destroyed, or at least the leadership is changed.”
Pokrovsk and the other fronts
Although Russian and Western declarations have given up the city of PokrovskFilimonov is among those who argue the opposite, that is the Russians are not in control of that important hub at all within Donetsk, aligning with what President Zelensky said in Paris, namely that fighting is still ongoing in the city.
And while we in the West are witnessing true media offensives and counter-offensiveswith weeks in which the Russians appear to be advancing and others in which the Ukrainians reconquer portions of territory, the reality is that Kiev’s forces lack menthere are no reserves and many battalions on the front are made up of a few dozen men instead of hundreds. Not to mention that the idea of mobilizing up to 30,000 new recruits per month does not prove effective because many of these soldiers do not prove suitable to replace the experienced front line troops. Equally true is that Ukrainian forces are managing to hold their ground in places like Pokrovsk, as well as Kupiansk And Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region, two positions that Russia has been trying to conquer for over a year without success.
Putin’s conditions
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that the fighting would not cease unless Ukraine does not withdraw troops from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regionsthe four provinces that Moscow forcibly annexed in September 2022. And to date Russian troops occupy only half of Zaporozhye and Kherson and two-thirds of Donetsk. It is no coincidence that the draft peace plan drawn up by the United States and Russia provided for the Ukrainian army to be limited and to withdraw from the rest of the region. This has a clear reason: although the Russian advance has been evident in recent months, it is by no means a given that Moscow will conquer the remaining third of Donetsk by 2026. Especially if Ukraine gets more Western aid.
An uncertain future
THE’European Union has allocated 50 billion dollars in aid from 2024 to 2027, but Kiev will need 83.4 billion dollars for the armed forces and 52 billion dollars for the rest of state expenditure in the two-year period 2026-2027. AND much depends on the possibility of using Russian money blocked in Western banks and confiscated assets. Which, however, can influence Moscow’s willingness to accept compromises to achieve peace.
