Not even the war manages to restore consistency to the price of oil. Today’s rebound (+2.6% to $74) is only a modest reaction to the very strong drops of recent weeks which led WTI prices to sink towards $70.
The performance of the other raw materials is very different. Gold, silver and coffee are rising sharply. Prices of the yellow metal rose 2.4% to $2,721.40 an ounce. Investors are seeking safe assets, anticipating that central banks will gradually ease the restrictive policies adopted over the past two years. Silver rose a notable 8.2%, with prices hitting $33.71 an ounce. According to analysts, gold has benefited from increased demand despite the rise of the US dollar and bond yields. The upcoming US presidential election could help keep prices high, with the London Bullion Market Association which predicts new record highs within the next year. Other precious metals, such as platinum and the palladiumsaw an increase of 2.9% and 1.8% respectively. In the agricultural sector, coffee saw a rise of 1.4% per pound, due to concerns over poor rainfall in Brazil, one of the world’s top producers
But if oil prices do not fall due to developments in the Middle East, what is the reason for the decline? The answer seems to lie in China. In the third quarter, China’s gross domestic product grew by 4.6%, compared to +4.7% in the previous quarter. Any weakness in the Chinese economy has repercussions on global energy marketsdespite the country having announced new economic stimuli, primarily that of black gold, weighed down by the news arriving yesterday from the USA, where crude oil production reached a new record, with an increase of 100,000 barrels per day in the week up to October 11, reaching 13.5 million barrels per day, surpassing the previous peak of 13.4 million barrels recorded two months ago. According to a report by JP Morgan“Since the start of the conflict in Gaza last October, oil price spikes have been short-lived, as oil production has been largely uninterrupted. However, this could change if Iran’s energy infrastructure is damaged “.
Global oil inventories are currently very low at 4.4 billion barrels, the lowest level on record since January 2017. In general, the JP Morgan Commodities Research predicts that the price of Brent could average around $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024 and $75 in 2025, before falling to the low $60s by the end of 2025. This downward trend is in line with the latest forecast World Energy Outlook 2024 of theInternational Energy Agencywhich predicts a peak in fossil fuel demand by the end of the decade, contrary to estimates Opec.
