The column – public & private
In recent years, Europe has pushed with determination towards an energy transition which, although necessary, has risked being too ambitious and disconnected from the industrial and technological reality of the continent.
The European car plan presented itself as a futuristic vision, but without a solid anchoring of the actual production capabilities of the European market. The transition to the electric car, in particular, highlighted a series of problems not adequately considered during planning: from the lack of a domestic supply chain for the production of batteries, to addiction to raw materials controlled by third countries, up to the lack of adequate infrastructure for charging.
For these reasons, the European car industry, in recent months, has been at the center of a heated debate, culminating in early March with the adoption by Europe of an action plan for the sector. After the publication of the plan, the debate passed away. So all resolved?
According to the data of the European Commission, In 2000 58 million cars were produced worldwide, of which 18 million in Europe, equal to 31% of the total. In 2022, global production was 85 million vehicles, of which 13 million in Europe, equal to 15%. In a market that has grown by 47%, Europe underwent a contraction of 28% and lost almost a third of its production. If it is not an industrial débâcle, we lack little. To further depress the picture is the fact that many experts believe that the loss is now structural and can hardly be recovered, at least in the short or medium term. In addition, the duties of 25% introduced by the United States on the car sector will further weigh down the situation for production in Europe.
It is striking that, while this scenario was developing in the world, the European institutions have imposed on our industry to commit imposing resources towards a goal, that of complete electrification of the sector by 2035, which many already from the beginning, while recognizing the ideal spirit, considered unrealistic in practice.
European policies, which certainly contributed to worsening the situation and accelerating its evolution, were not the main cause of the crisis, however which lies in the ability of Asian producers, especially Chinese, to fill the technological gap and skills with Europe and the United States. In China, in 2000, 2 million cars were produced; In 2022, 27 million. In addition, the European car industry, which still enjoys technological supremacy in traditional combustion engines, has not managed to transfer this advantage to the field of electrical mobility, despite investments, and which today is for China, nor in that of autonomous driving, where the United States is more advanced.
The new European action plan, compared to the previous simplistic vision of “electric car at all costs”, recognizes a more complex situation And, on some aspects, it takes steps forward. For example, it recognizes the inadequacy of some impositions and postpones the sanctions for those producers who have not yet been able to follow the path of reduction of emissions by at least two years. It also provides initiatives to relaunch the experimentation in Europe of autonomous driving systems, giving dignity to this fundamental technological development.
However, the plan does not deal with underlying structural issues. Confirms the obligation to be able to enter the market, starting from 2035, only zero emissions cars, citing only electricity and hydrogen options, without mentioning the biocombustibles of non -fossil origin, which could also represent a concrete solution for at least part of the problem. Furthermore, it is not considered how Europe can create adequate charging infrastructures for electric cars or hydrogen in just 10 years.
1.8 billion in the next two years are made available For the creation of a European electric batteries chain, just when the European “champion” of the sector, Northolvit, said bankruptcy, burning even greater figures. Without the analysis of the causes of this failure, there is a risk of dispersing further resources.
A further relaunch of the economic incentives for the purchase of electric cars is expectedwithout considering that the cost gap between electric and traditional cars varies between 5 thousand and 10 thousand euros per vehicle. With about 12 million cars sold every year in Europe, the level of incentives necessary for a truly effective policy should be around 60 billion euros per year, a figure outside the reach of the European Union and the Member States.
It is difficult to think that the European action plan can definitively resolve the situation. Probably, further corrections will be needed in the coming years to guarantee a balance between environmental sustainability, industrial competitiveness and strategic independence. Only a pragmatic and realistic approach can prevent Europe from losing its leading role in the global automotive industry and, even more crucial, which loses its credibility towards its citizens.
