Thinking about Pedro Sanchezthe Spanish leader, taken as a model by Elly Schleinthe secretary of the Democratic Party who two years ago said «Meloni takes away SIM cards from migrants», one of Winston Churchill’s famous aphorisms comes to mind (he passed away 61 years ago and the world does not seem to have improved): «Socialists are like Christopher Columbus: they leave without knowing where they are going. When they arrive they don’t know where they are. All this with other people’s money.” The column in Plaza Cristobal Colón in Barcelona reminds Sánchez that Columbus used other people’s money. Why start from him to deal with migrants? Because it is the demonstration of the hypocrisy that exists, throughout Europe and in Italy in particular, regarding this emergency.
He opens detention centers and at the same time, to make himself look good, gives citizenship to half a million “irregulars”. While in Italy the left and the judges are raising hell against the CPR which the executive created thanks to an agreement that Europe likes so much, with Edi Rama in Albania, the self-proclaimed maximal leader of the world left copies and inaugurated two detention centers in Mauritania where he locks up migrants.
Pedro Sánchez and the Albania model that the Spanish left likes
However, the wall of silence built on the cliché that “Europe is aging, migrants serve us and will pay our pensions” has cracked. The figures – the few that can be found beyond the curtain of do-good conformism – demonstrate the exact opposite: the system of European welfare it is put into crisis precisely by migrants.
The demonstration comes from Sweden where Ulf Kristerssonprime minister and former economic minister, has decided to offer up to 34 thousand dollars to each migrant who agrees to return to his home. Says the Scandinavian Immigration Minister Johan Forssell: “We can’t afford it anymore, we have to change direction.” Sweden, out of 11 million inhabitants, has 20% immigrants with half a million unemployment benefits amounting to 1,100 euros per month to be paid.
Friedrich Merz – German chancellor – gave an abrupt stop to family reunions and stopped all funding for NGOs. The Interior Minister explained why Alexander Dobrindt: «The capacity of our social systems has its limits, as does that of our educational systems. Even our real estate market has its limits and therefore immigration to Germany must also have limits.”
From Germany to Japan: the economic limits of hospitality
A new term has been coined in Berlin: “imflation”. Which means that there are too many migrants, but also that excess subsidies generate inflation, which for Germans is a biblical plague. All European countries now agree on this.
The EU went from around 10 billion euros spent on foreigners in the previous budget, to 22.7 billion euros in the budget that runs out next year. In 2024, the latest available data provided by the EU, there were almost 912 thousand asylum seekers and of these almost 13% knocked on Italy’s doors. Less than half had refugee status recognized. The others are dispersed in Europe where there are already almost seven million Ukrainians fleeing the war. A weight that is difficult to bear.
The new pact (approved by the European Chamber two years ago) focuses on rejections, fast repatriations and in fact embraces the Italian line of agreements with third countries ready to welcome repatriation centres.
Europe is trying in every way to empty itself of migrants. In the last year Europe has expelled almost 133 thousand. And there is also an attempt to copy the Japanese model which leverages artificial intelligence. Obeying the mantra “we get older, we need hands”, Japan has been filled with 4.2 million immigrants who, however, are only 3.4% of the population (in Italy we are at 10%: almost 6 million out of 59 million). The government of Sanae Takaichi launched the slogan “Japanese first”, Japanese first: border tightening, repatriations and use of artificial intelligence. Takahiro Yeara young computer engineer – he founded an ultra-nationalist party which won eight deputies at its debut – proposed to overcome the dependence of low-skilled foreign labor with the massive use of artificial intelligence and with a policy of open arms to talent.
The accounts of social security itineraries and the INPS balance sheet
An impossible approach in Italy, where we continue to argue that migrants will pay our pensions. The latest report from Social security itinerariesHowever, it highlights that out of 4.6 million immigrants able to work, only 3.4 million actually have a job and it is noted that pensioners have doubled in ten years. 11% of regular subjects. Furthermore, almost all foreigners in our country have a gross income of less than 17 thousand euros and in fact do not pay Irpef and benefit from all social bonuses and of the half million pensioners, 45% have not paid contributions.
In reality, there is no recent study on how much migrants weigh on welfare. But in 2017 Majlinda Joxhe And Skerdilajda Zanaj – immigrant researchers working with Eurostat – in their Measuring Fiscal Effects of Immigration in Europe they had noticed that in the 27 countries of the Union on average the net fiscal position of regular migrants – that is, the difference between what they pay in taxes and contributions and what they receive in welfare – was equal to 104 euros per person per month for each non-EU citizen and 82 euros for each EU member.
Returning to Italy, the NGO figures say that the fiscal balance of migrants for 2024 is equal to 4.6 billion taking into account that they pay 39.1 billion and receive 34.5 billion in benefits. Figures which, if projected over the long term, tell us that migrants do not pay enough to pay for tomorrow’s pensions. And other numbers must also be entered. The first is on welfare costs: they absorb 22% (1.3 billion out of a total of 5.9).
It must be considered that the State spends around 7,500 euros per student per year and that healthcare spending for migrants is on the rise. The data is confirmed byINPS Observatory: in 2024, 4,611,267 foreign citizens were detected in the archives of the Italian Social Security Institute led by Gabriele Fava. Of these, 3,980,609 people are active in the labor market and 252,013 people receive income support benefits (unemployment, mobility).
Then there are other “weights”. Overall, the state spends 4.8 billion on the management of arriving migrants. For unaccompanied minors alone, who number just over 18,000, Rome pays an average of 120 euros per day for 789 million euros per year. To which we add approximately 400 million in fees that public coffers cover for free legal aid and legal assistance. And this explains why every time a rejection is proposed, lawsuits and appeals are instituted.
Limiting ourselves to the Gjader CPR in Albania alone, out of 495 immigrants sent there from Italy, we had to take two thirds back. All things considered, every year we spend 7.3 billion which adds to the 8.6 billion in remittances that regular migrants have made abroad. State expenses of 7.3 billion and the 8.6 billion of exported value which creates an immigration imbalance of over 12 billion euros per year must be subtracted from that contribution margin of those who comply with the law for 4.6 billion.
To have a prospective vision we must refer again to Social security itineraries. As a country, they write in the report, “we are net exporters of qualified labour, while we import labor with skills and education levels very different from those in Italy with negative repercussions on wages and productivity development”.
Those who emphasize the 177 billion in added value produced by migrants do not consider that these workers are often a negative factor in productivity and have an impact on lowering wages. And again Itineraries social security almost prophesies: «Analyzing the historical series since 2015 shows that the number of workers and recipients of income support has increased at an average annual rate of 2.6%; the number of pensioners is growing by an average of 6.4% per year and in ten years they have almost doubled (+86.4%)”. The conclusion? We will most likely pay their pensions.
